Draghi’s African gas diplomacy and Italy’s energy diversification

Draghi gas tour

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is actively seeking to cut dependence on Russian gas. To pursue this goal he travelled to Algeria for a scheduled business meeting with President Abdelmajid Tebboune. Media reports indicate that the discussions could yield an energy agreement designed to boost Italy’s annual gas imports from Algeria by at least 9 billion cubic meters.

The central actors identified for this effort include the Italian energy giant Eni and the Algerian state energy company Sonatrach. Leaders on both sides have been exploring higher gas deliveries to Southern Europe for several days. In the medium term, gas flows could nearly double, rising from around 60 million to about 110 million cubic meters per day.

Draghi’s planned African gas tour would probably extend to Angola and Mozambique. The aim is to secure agreements that could guarantee roughly 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Yet, sources note that diversifying supply routes presents challenges, and reaching true energy autonomy from Moscow could take years.

how long will the process take

Replacing Russian pipeline gas most likely involves increasing LNG imports. The development of new LNG facilities in several African nations is projected to occur between 2025 and 2029, which implies that fresh gas flows to Italy may not begin before 2030, according to analysis from energy market experts.

Industry voices agree that early next decade will still pose obstacles for Italy in shedding its Russian gas dependency. The contracts with Moscow long anchored the supply, with major long-term agreements expiring around 2035, making unilateral termination a potential legal risk for Rome.

Gazprom currently supplies roughly 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Italy under long-term contracts, accounting for around half of the country’s total consumption, according to energy analysts.

Recent assessments place Italy among the top EU importers of Russian gas, next to Germany. Even if Turkey is counted, Rome would remain in the upper echelon. Analysts caution that breaking these long-standing ties will be a multi-year effort that will stretch into the next decade.

Mozambique and Angola

Italy’s leadership has signaled that Angola and Mozambique could play a pivotal role alongside Algeria. Together, these nations might deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters of LNG per year to Rome. While Algeria’s export potential faces certain limits, experts say Mozambique is advancing with a major LNG project that could reshape regional supply dynamics once it comes online after 2026. Angola is viewed as capable of adding substantial volumes of LNG to exports in the near term.

However, concerns exist about the stability of the Mozambican environment. The energy sector there has seen disruptions tied to security and governance issues. In recent history, an evacuation around a large LNG project followed militant activity, and officials have warned that timing could shift further. The situation highlights how political risk can influence LNG expansion plans in Africa.

The Mozambican and Angolan paths present a potential diversification away from Algeria, but the challenges are nontrivial. The reliance on LNG in these markets hinges on political stability, infrastructure readiness, and financing, all of which impact the pace at which Italy can broaden its LNG imports from Africa.

Algeria

Algeria has long supplied a significant fraction of Italy’s gas, yet some analysts note shifts in the country’s standing within global energy markets. The economics of Algerian gas export depend on investment conditions and the involvement of local state controls. Analysts have suggested that Italian investment would require careful navigation of stakes in discovery and production to balance control with policy aims.

Observations point to the need for robust investment frameworks to unlock additional export capacity. Short-term contracts have dominated Algeria’s export model, often at higher fuel costs compared with long-term arrangements that Italy maintains with other suppliers. The regional energy landscape includes potential overlaps with neighboring markets, including Spain and Portugal, which could influence volumes allocated to Rome depending on broader trade arrangements.

Significant uncertainties remain about the pace of LNG terminal expansion within the European Union. The economics of large-scale terminals depend on return on investment, regulatory clarity, and alignment with green energy strategies. As a result, any substantial increase in North African LNG volumes may require careful planning and shared commitments among EU members and energy partners.