Euro Surges Against the Ruble Amid Currency Market Movements
In late trading on March 10, the euro surpassed 81 rubles for the first time since April 22, 2022, according to data from the Moscow Exchange. The movement reflected a shift in investor sentiment and a reshaping of how international trade currencies are perceived within the Russian market. By 18:01 Moscow time, the euro had risen 0.96% to 81.02 rubles, signaling a decisive break above a key psychological level. At 18:17, the euro traded at 81 rubles, up 0.93% for the session, further illustrating strong euro strength against the ruble in modern trading conditions.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar edged higher by 0.28% to 76.06 rubles, and the yuan gained 0.94% to 10,958 rubles. These movements collectively point to a more complex cross-border currency dynamic, where traditional reserve currencies were influenced by global risk appetite, domestic policy expectations, and evolving trade flows. The day’s snapshot underscores the ruble’s sensitivity to external shocks and the evolving role of foreign currencies in Russia’s payment systems.
Historical context accompanies the current snapshot. The share of so-called “hostile” currencies in payments for Russian exports contracted markedly in 2022, dropping from 87% to 48%. This reduction reflects policy and market adjustments aimed at diversifying settlement currencies and moderating exposure to specific international channels. At the same time, holdings of the U.S. dollar and European currencies in import payments retreated from 65% to 46%. As a result, the share of dollars and euros in Russia’s foreign settlements slipped below 50% for the first time since 2013.
Looking ahead, market analysts offered projections for the ruble-dominated segment of the currency market. One analyst, Mikhail Belyaev, suggested that during March 2023 the U.S. dollar rate would hover around 76 rubles, reflecting a balance between external demand and domestic liquidity conditions. The analyst also cautioned that a shift could occur in the following month, with the ratio of U.S. dollars to rubles potentially rising to around 77 units of account as macro factors evolved. Such assessments highlight the ongoing uncertainty in currency corridors and the importance of monitoring policy signals, trade developments, and global risk sentiment as the year progresses.
In sum, the March 10 trading session illuminated several enduring themes in the ruble’s interaction with major currencies. The euro’s climb past 81 rubles marks a notable milestone in recent history, while the dollar and yuan movements reveal a broader mosaic of cross-border finance, trade finance considerations, and shifting hedging strategies. For stakeholders tracking Russia’s external settlements, these dynamics underscore how currency mix can influence pricing, payment timing, and exposure to currency risk in both imports and exports.