The euro has pierced the 83 ruble mark, a move that many observers describe as a spike in demand rather than a lasting trend. Economists and lecturers at leading Russian institutions, including Vladislav Ginko of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), point to this shift as a temporary reaction in the foreign exchange market.
Ginko argues that a sudden jump in the euro’s value reflects a near-term surge in demand rather than a new equilibrium. He cautions that what looks like a breakout could simply mark the end of a current cycle, with the euro and the dollar moving through a period of volatility rather than establishing durable momentum. In his view, the post-crisis environment has kept the euro relatively risky for individual traders because policy actions from the European Union and the United States can abruptly affect currency flows. As a result, household demand for euros from private buyers is likely to ease in the near term.
Beyond FX dynamics, the expert notes broader shifts in the global economy that influence demand for European currencies. There is a visible tilt toward tourism in regions where alternative currencies are gaining traction, reflecting diversification away from a euro-centric travel economy. For instance, opening up new travel corridors in Asia and the resurgent appeal of non-European destinations can divert tourism toward currencies other than the euro. This trend, coupled with changes in global production patterns, may reduce the reliance on European goods within import-dependent economies and encourage domestic manufacturing to meet local demand. As a result, the landscape for imported goods could evolve, making Russia more self-sufficient in certain sectors over the coming years.
In a separate assessment from Renaissance Bank’s Investment Analytics team, Roman Chechushkov warned that the ruble could see a period of strengthening in the March–April window, projecting it to trade within a band roughly centered around 72–75 rubles per U.S. dollar and 76–78 rubles per euro. While currency forecasts always carry uncertainty, the view emphasizes the potential for short-term tightening in the ruble’s range as market participants reassess risk, interest rate trajectories, and global economic signals. These insights align with a broader pattern of cautious optimism about the ruble amid varying external pressures and domestic macroeconomic adjustments. [Attribution: Renaissance Bank Investment Analytics]