Energy flows and policy shifts impact ESPO crude exports to India

India, the largest buyer of sea shipments of Russian oil, has not been purchasing premium ESPO grade shipped through the Kozmino port for two months, according to Kommersant. The shift comes after a noticeable drop in imports, with earlier reports pointing to a reduced intake of Sokol, another premium oil produced in Sakhalin fields. The declines appear linked to unsettled fuel payments and concerns among Indian importers about potential tightening of the price ceiling on Russian oil. In perspective, ESPO shipments to India last year averaged around 95 thousand barrels, with roughly 60 thousand barrels per day in the latter half of 2022. ESPO is a Russian crude known for its low sulfur content, under 0.6 percent, sourced from fields in eastern Siberia. As May futures for Brent edged above 85 dollars per barrel for the first time since November 2023, global pricing dynamics were in focus for buyers and sellers alike. In March, statements from the Russian leadership indicated that production cuts under OPEC+ could affect Russia’s share of the world oil market, adding another layer of uncertainty for exporters and importers. Speaking publicly, Russia’s leadership underscored the expectation that oil workers have a long career ahead, signaling a commitment to continued production and employment in the sector. The evolving geopolitical and market backdrop has kept major buyers like India reassessing their strategies for oil supply, pricing expectations, and payment arrangements as global supply chains adapt to shifting policy and demand conditions. Analysts note that changes in premium grades such as ESPO and Sokol reflect broader tensions in supply, price governance, and the balance of power among producers, consumers, and trading partners. Observers emphasize the importance of keeping a close watch on how oil price caps, currency moves, and payment terms influence procurement plans for refined products and crude oil across regional markets. With India and other large buyers recalibrating their portfolios, fluency in market signals, shipment timing, and risk management will remain crucial as the market navigates a patchwork of sanctions, price controls, and economic shifts. The conversation around ESPO, Sokol, and similar grades will likely continue to evolve as distributors, refiners, and consumers seek stability and clarity in an environment of fluctuating demand and geopolitical change. The broader takeaway is that even in the face of policy shifts and price volatility, the ability to secure reliable supply lines, manage payment risk, and respond quickly to market signals remains a central consideration for buyers operating in the Eurasian oil corridor and beyond.