Economists examine ruble dynamics amid foreign exchange shifts
Economist Evgeniy Kogan, a professor at the Higher School of Economics, discussed currency trends on Moscow speaks. He noted that the ruble has been weakening as Russian exporters accumulate earnings in currencies such as dirhams, yuan, and rupees instead of dollars and euros.
Kogan pointed out that these foreign currencies cannot be used to pay for many essential Russian imports. He highlighted that Russia still needs dollars and euros for many purchases, including large-scale goods and strategic imports.
He explained that the ruble’s decline is tied to the broader challenge of converting export revenue into usable cash domestically. The process of transferring foreign exchange earnings back into the Russian banking system is ongoing and complicated, he said, describing it as a struggle to adhere to the established rules for funds repatriation.
Kogan added that Western banks consciously slow the transfer of money to Russia, extending the time frame and adding friction to capital movements. This effect, he argued, contributes to persistent pressure on the ruble and shapes expectations about its future trajectory.
Earlier remarks from market analysts in Russia suggested a potential new wave of ruble weakness could emerge after late September. A prominent stock market expert, Dmitry Babin, cautioned that further depreciation might occur as market conditions evolve and investors recalibrate risk in response to geopolitical and economic developments.
There were previous reports about government actions aimed at supporting the ruble following official directives to strengthen the currency. Observers note that policy measures often interact with global financial flows, impacting liquidity and investor sentiment in both domestic and international markets. Experts emphasize that the ruble remains sensitive to changes in commodity prices, currency reserves, and the pace at which foreign currency earnings are repatriated, all of which shape short- and mid-term trends for the Russian currency.