Kirill Dmitriev, who leads the Russian Direct Investment Fund, has argued that the United States is already slipping into a recession, pointing to two consecutive quarters of GDP decline as a warning sign that aligns with widely discussed forecasts on a broader economic slowdown. He notes that the data from the US Commerce Department for the second quarter of 2022 showed a 0.9% fall in GDP, which followed a 1.6% drop in the previous quarter. In his view, this pattern meets the commonly cited technical definition of recession, which requires consecutive quarterly declines in GDP. His interpretation reflects a concern shared by many analysts about the resilience of the US economy in the face of monetary tightening, inflation pressures, and shifting consumer demand.
Dmitriev further contends that a mix of domestic and external factors will likely sustain a slower pace of growth in the United States over the near term. He also highlights a challenging economic environment in Europe, where sanctions related to Russia, rising price levels, and ongoing disruptions to global supply chains are contributing to softer activity across several economies. In his assessment, the European region faces a combination of energy constraints, post-pandemic normalization pains, and political headwinds that complicate recovery efforts.
According to the Russian analyst, a broader trend is emerging in which investors are rebalancing expectations and risk tolerance in response to sanctions and geopolitical tensions. He points out that a notable portion of global capital has shifted toward safe-haven assets and government securities from major economies, a move that he suggests is symptomatic of increased uncertainty about the near-term outlook for both the US and the European Union. While some investors are seeking shelter in government bonds, Dmitriev argues that sanctions are creating negative feedback effects that reverberate beyond Russia and are impacting the US and EU economies in ways that may be disproportionate relative to their effects on Moscow.
Historically, recent analyses from major financial institutions have underscored the vulnerability of European markets to shifts in energy supply and demand dynamics, especially in the wake of the pandemic and the ongoing energy transition. The main factors cited include volatility in energy markets, slower-than-expected recovery phases, and political developments within key member states. Analysts emphasize that while the immediate impact may vary by country, the cumulative pressure from these factors can drag on growth, investment, and consumer confidence across the continent. These dynamics are echoed in assessments from regional economists who compare current conditions to prior cycles, noting that the combination of external shocks and domestic policy responses will shape the path of recovery through the remainder of the year and into the next. [Cited: Market analyses and sector commentary.]