Economists outlined three possible paths for the Russian economy in the wake of a shock triggered by a sharp drop in revenue from energy exports. All three scenarios share a common twist: even as the economy faces stagnation, investments within the domestic market could rise. This counterintuitive outcome emerges from projected shifts in exchange rates, consumer behavior, and the resilience of non-energy sectors within the economy.
The scenarios differ mainly in how severely budget revenues from energy exports might shrink. At the start of the year, revenue from oil and gas remained relatively strong despite broad international sanctions, yet the projections allow for substantial declines in the coming years. Depending on the pace of the shock, budget revenue could decrease by 40 percent, 60 percent, or 80 percent, creating a wide spectrum of potential macroeconomic outcomes.
In the long run, a 40 percent, 60 percent, or 80 percent drop in commodity-based income is associated with declines in real GDP by about 7.1 percent, 10.7 percent, and 14.2 percent, respectively. Household consumption is also projected to fall, with variations of roughly 9.3 percent, 14 percent, and 18.6 percent. Yet the picture is not entirely bleak. The reductions in energy exports would be offset, to a meaningful degree, by an uptick in productive activity outside the sanctioned energy sector. A weaker national currency is anticipated to bolster non-sanctioned exporters and support a broader range of economic activities, even as real wages come under pressure. This mix helps cushion some negative effects and preserves a path for the non-energy portion of the economy to contribute more robustly than might be expected during a strict energy shock.
Official communications from the federal budget office note a tightening in monthly revenue streams. For the current month, projected oil and gas receipts fall below a threshold of 113.6 billion rubles, marking a continued reduction from the prior month. In the preceding month, receipts were recorded at just above the 39 billion ruble level. The numbers reflect the ongoing recalibration of fiscal planning in light of energy market volatility and the changing price environment, underscoring the importance of policy measures that can stabilize public finances while supporting diversification and resilience across sectors.