In 2022, amid the broad sanctions imposed on Russia, the country faced a noticeable shift in its labor market. Official estimates indicate that the jobless rate rose to 6.2 percent, while the real disposable income available to households contracted by about 12 percent. These figures were cited by RBC, drawing on a report produced by the VEB.RF Research and Specialization Institute. The period highlighted how external policy measures can ripple through employment and consumer purchasing power, creating a testing ground for policy responses and private sector adaptation alike.
Looking ahead, analysts project a strong inflation trajectory for the year, with a peak near 19.3 percent by year’s end. The same forecast framework, however, anticipates a gradual cooling in subsequent years: by December 2023 the inflation rate could ease to around 5.3 percent, and by December 2024 it might stabilize closer to 4.1 percent as the effects of global price pressures and domestic policy actions begin to moderate.
The institute’s outlook emphasizes that additional measures are essential to cushion Russians from the pressures of sanctions. The proposed actions are designed to address urgent, critical problems that have emerged as a direct result of Western restrictions, focusing on preserving economic stability, safeguarding essential services, and maintaining household resilience in a difficult external environment. The aim is to implement targeted interventions that support income levels and consumer confidence while avoiding abrupt disruptions to supply chains and productive investment.
Raisa Lukyanenko, who leads the human capital department at the institute, noted that the recommended package could lessen the downturn in disposable income from its current trajectory and help stabilize employment levels. According to her assessment, the measures under consideration could reduce the decline in real income to around minus 10 percent and bring the unemployment rate down toward 6 percent by the end of 2022, thereby softening the immediate social and economic impact on families and communities, as reported to RBC.
Industry observers also cite the perspective of Maxim Reshetnikov, a former head of Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development. He suggested that while sanctions will inevitably drive a calibration process within the economy, there remains a wide margin of safety to absorb shocks. This view underlines the critical balance between price stability, employment protection, and continued investment, suggesting that careful policy calibration and structural reforms could help the economy adapt without triggering a sharper contraction or longer-lasting inflationary pressures.