The rise in wages within Russia’s domestic labor market is more about the tightness of the workforce than about improvements in productivity or corporate performance. This shift is taking shape amid structural reforms shaping the economy and a persistent shortage of personnel in key sectors. Natalya Danina, a chief labor market specialist and head of customer efficiency at hh.ru, discusses the situation with RBC, highlighting how scarcity of workers is driving pay raises even when output levels remain uneven across industries.
On May 17, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that nominal wages in Russia had risen by about 13 percent over the previous year, while real wages—what workers can actually purchase with those earnings—grew by roughly 3 percent. This divergence reflects how inflation and price pressures are interacting with wage growth, creating a cautious yet persistent upward drift in pay packets. The official figures come as the broader economy is adjusting to a mix of domestic structural changes and external sanctions, which are altering demand patterns and labor availability in segments ranging from services to manufacturing.
Danina notes that the wage uptick is largely a response to the struggle to attract and retain talent in a competitive job market. With candidates scarce and existing staff choosing among competing offers, employers feel compelled to increase salaries to secure critical skills and experience. This phenomenon is less about signaling stronger business results and more about maintaining workforce stability in the face of hiring frictions that have become a defining feature of the recruitment environment in recent months.
In a June 3 report, Dmitry Kulikov, who heads the independent ACRA regional ratings group, warned that the historically low unemployment rate could eventually weigh on the economy. He pointed out that ongoing structural adjustments, compounded by international sanctions, are reshaping the domestic labor market. As wages rise in response to labor shortages, there is a potential risk that inflation could accelerate in the near term if price pressures propagate through consumer spending, wage negotiations, and business costs. The balance between wage growth, inflation, and productivity remains a critical area for policymakers and business leaders as Russia navigates a period of economic reconfiguration.