Economist Yegor Klopenko offered commentary on the ruble’s trajectory through the end of April. He projected that the currency would hover in the range of about 70 to 80 rubles per U.S. dollar, a band he described as likely to persist in the near term. Klopenko argued that there is no compelling economic justification for a new rush of strengthening, and he noted that sanctions imposed on Russia had not produced a measurable shift in the domestic currency. He attributed the ruble’s relative steadiness to a combination of a firm monetary framework from the Central Bank of Russia, a sizable positive balance from foreign exchange operations, and a general absence of panic among market participants.
Oleg Shibanov, who previously directed the SKOLKOVO-NES Center for Financial Technology and Digital Economy Studies, outlined reasons behind the ruble’s stability. He highlighted a large supply of foreign currency from exporters who must convert around 80% of their earnings, coupled with softer demand from importers. Shibanov also pointed out that there was little demand from the Russian Ministry of Finance to buy dollars, a situation linked to the freezing of dollar accounts that limited official currency purchases.
In early April, the ruble faced renewed pressure as the dollar test intensified. On the morning of April 7, traders quoted the dollar at levels near 75 rubles. By 14:30 Moscow time, activity on the Moscow Exchange showed a rebound, with the dollar trading around 75.94 rubles. The euro also traded at just under 83 rubles in the morning, a level not seen since February. These movements underscored ongoing volatility but also the resilience seen in the currency market as traders weighed supply, demand, and policy signals from Russian authorities.