Some analysts argue that the dollar could lose its standing as the leading world currency if policy directions associated with the previous U.S. administration gain traction. In a Financial Times piece, economist Barry Eichengreen summarized a line of thinking that has circulated for years: the sovereignty of the dollar was based on trade, trade unions and institutions. Now this period ends, he says, hinting at a shift in how the global monetary order might be arranged in the years ahead.
Eichengreen contends that the former president could, within a matter of months, weaken and even destroy the principle of relations and reciprocity with other countries. The idea is not merely theoretical, but a reflection of how quickly policy rhetoric can translate into practical actions across international markets. The claim underscores how delicate the balance is between a currency’s prestige and the geopolitical moves that shape its appeal to central banks, importers, and investors alike.
Earlier observations from Alfa-Form, a regional company, pointed to the ruble’s ongoing journey in the foreign exchange arena. Alexander Schneidermanman, who heads the customer and sales support department there, noted that from the end of February 2022 the ruble had fallen against the world’s major currencies. The ruble weakened by about 23 percent versus the dollar, roughly 12 percent versus the euro, and around 5.8 percent against the yuan. He added that the combination of exporters’ interests, the national budget dynamics, and potential declines in oil prices could prolong the ruble’s depreciation trend into 2025. On his view, a new range for 2025 implied dollar rates near 85 to 110 rubles, with the euro hovering around 90 to 115 rubles and yuan around 12.7 to 15 rubles.
Meanwhile, a strategist from BCS World Investment Stock Exchange, Alexander Shepelev, offered a more near-term snapshot. He suggested that in the coming week the ruble might move toward roughly 92 to 92.5 per dollar, with the euro in the 96 to 97 band and the yuan around 12.5 to 12.7 rubles. These projections reflect a market that is sensitive to policy shifts, oil price expectations and the evolving stance of central banks as they manage inflation, growth and currency stability. Investors are watching these indicators closely, weighing how much any policy pivot could alter risk premia and carry trades across asset classes.
In this climate, questions about the trajectory of the dollar’s exchange rate remain pressing. The Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, is at the start of weighing policy options that could influence how quickly exchange rates adjust under external pressures and domestic priorities. The timing and scope of any fiscal or monetary measures are likely to affect not only the ruble, but also the broader rate environment and cross-border investment flows. As markets digest these moves, analysts stress that the path of the dollar in the coming months will be shaped by a combination of geopolitical developments, commodity price dynamics, and shifts in global demand for safe-haven currencies. The interplay between policy signaling in major economies and the real economy will determine whether the dollar maintains, regains, or loses its once unrivaled status on the world stage. The debate continues, with observers noting that no single factor will decide the outcome; rather, it will be a mosaic of policy choices, market sentiment, and structural changes pacing the global currency system.