A market economist offered observations on the dollar’s recent rise and the low probability of the U.S. currency crossing the 120 ruble barrier in the near term. The analyst notes that while the dollar has moved higher in recent days, several moderating forces should prevent a sustained push beyond that level. The outlook depends on mixed signals from the United States and shifting conditions in Russia, including trade flows, sanctions, and central bank policy. Market participants will be watching how import needs and export revenues interact with policy expectations, as these forces tend to steer the currency in the months ahead.
The forecast for the coming months and into the next year suggests the ruble is likely to show a slow, uneven path of depreciation, with bouts of strength and weakness but no rapid collapse. In practical terms, the rate may drift downward gradually, punctuated by periods of volatility in one direction or another. This trajectory depends on domestic demand for imports, the volume of exports, the price and resilience of energy shipments, and shifts in risk appetite on the global stage. A modest recovery in the ruble could occur if commodity prices hold steady and sanctions pressure eases, though such a turn is far from guaranteed.
The core drivers of the ruble remain the balance between imports and exports. When imports rise, demand for foreign currency grows and the ruble tends to soften. Conversely, stronger export earnings increase demand for the ruble, supporting its value. This dynamic is reinforced by shifts in energy prices, cargo flows, and the broader market mood, which together shape how quickly or slowly the currency responds to evolving fundamentals.
On a late November trading day, data showed the dollar trading above 111 rubles and the euro above 113 rubles. Market observers attributed the move to fresh U.S. sanctions and their perceived impact on risk sentiment. Some analysts projected the dollar rising toward 115 rubles by year-end, while the 120 ruble level remains a psychological milestone that traders watch as a signal of possible turning points in the currency cycle.
Historically, many residents have avoided buying dollars when the ruble weakens, preferring to wait for clearer signals. Corporates and households alike tend to adjust their hedging and budgeting practices in response to evolving inflation, sanctions, and global risk appetite, aiming to soften potential shocks from currency swings and preserve purchasing power in a volatile environment.