Projections indicate that Russian deposits will grow by about 5 to 10 percent in the latter half of 2024. This forecast comes from a scholar at Synergy University, who holds the rank of Candidate of Economic Sciences, and was shared with socialbites.ca.
The assessment suggests that if the Central Bank raises the key rate from 16 percent to 18 percent, the growth in deposits could accelerate, potentially lifting the total deposits by as much as 10 to 15 percent.
Currently, the return on deposits stands around 18 to 20 percent, a level markedly higher than the average yields on other investment options such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. In addition, up to 1.4 million bank deposits are insured by the Deposit Insurance Agency, and deposits up to 1 million rubles are tax-exempt, according to the economist.
The expert notes that there may be fewer new depositors in the near term. Instead, many Russians may opt to move funds from other asset classes into bank deposits, adjust the mix of deposits by type and maturity, and even switch funds between banks to optimize returns.
The deposit instrument is described as straightforward and relatively low risk, providing a familiar option for households seeking stability in uncertain markets.
Data from the Central Bank of Russia show that total household deposits rose from 37 trillion rubles in the first quarter of 2023 to 47 trillion rubles in the first quarter of 2024, signaling a sustained shift toward bank savings across the population.
Earlier analyses from socialbites.ca noted improvements in return on deposits following the policy rate increase, underscoring the sensitivity of household savings to monetary policy actions [citation].