President Vladimir Putin issued a decree on Wednesday concerning the compulsory sale of foreign currency earnings by Russian exporters under foreign trade contracts. The measure was reported by the Government of the Russian Federation.
The decree covers 43 export groups across the fuel and energy sector, metals, forestry, chemicals, and grain production. It includes a defined list of exporters, though the specific company names have not been disclosed yet.
Under the decree, individual firms must repatriate funds to Russia within six months and convert their foreign exchange earnings into rubles. The government will set the exact volumes and deadlines within 24 hours of signing the document.
Companies were instructed to submit indicative currency purchase and sale plans to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and Rosfinmonitoring.
Authorized representatives of financial intelligence will be attached to these companies to monitor compliance with currency rules.
Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov commented that the move is necessary to increase transparency and predictability in the foreign exchange market and reduce opportunities for speculative activity. He added that the measure should not unduly burden legitimate market participants.
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, has previously argued against mandatory repatriation. The regulator has indicated that more than 80 percent of exporters’ earnings are typically converted on the domestic market. Nevertheless, the Bank supported a targeted compulsory sale for certain exporters, noting it could help reduce short-term volatility in the currency market. Bank officials emphasized that the restrictions are designed to preserve existing trade plans for the majority of participants in foreign trade. These statements followed an inquiry from Interfax.
How did this affect the ruble?
Following the announcement, the ruble strengthened in late trading to around 97.7 per dollar and gained further in the morning session. By about 11:10 a.m., the ruble was up roughly 3 percent versus the dollar, with the dollar trading near 97 rubles. The euro and yuan also weakened against the ruble. As markets evolved, the dollar hovered near 97.05 rubles, the euro near 103.09 rubles, and the yuan around 13.30 rubles. Market observers noted rising trade volumes as exporters and financial players adjusted to the new regime and anticipated continued currency sales over the next six months. Analysts stressed that the immediate reaction reflected expectations rather than a settled equilibrium. Some cautioned that the full impact would depend on the parameters of the policy once released. (source: industry analyses)
Analysts warned that the improvement in the ruble could be modest unless the policy is accompanied by broader macroeconomic support. One strategist suggested that many of the core forces that previously supported the ruble were different from those in 2022, when a broader set of measures was used to shore up the currency. Other experts pointed out that the current import environment and capital controls have evolved, potentially limiting the size of a sharp rebound in the ruble.
The market outlook remains nuanced. Officials indicated ongoing engagement with the business community to ensure stable currency supply while avoiding abrupt restrictions that could disrupt exports and imports. This approach aims to provide stability without hampering the operation of Russian enterprises in a sanctions-influenced landscape. Experts noted that any future adjustments could be gradual and targeted to preserve export revenues and the flow of essential imports.
What is expected for the near term?
Experts anticipate the ruble may drift within a wide band through the year as the policy unfolds. Projections point to a gradual strengthening toward mid-90s per dollar, but potential revisions exist if capital controls are adjusted or if energy prices move sharply. Analysts also highlighted that a softening of the ruble could prompt renewed discussions about policy timing and scope to prevent excessive volatility and to maintain import continuity. Some observers warned that exporters might still re-access funds on the market, which could limit the immediate impact on the exchange rate. The general expectation is a more controlled, incremental response that respects the complexity of current sanctions-driven trade dynamics.
Towards the year’s end, forecasts vary. A number of economists see the ruble stabilizing around the 90–100 per dollar range, with some scenarios projecting a gradual climb toward the upper 90s. A few researchers cautioned that stronger currency levels could challenge budget assumptions, while others argued that prudent policy sequencing would help preserve export earnings and secure necessary imports in a cautious, measured manner. The overall takeaway is that the decree is likely to be implemented with careful calibration to support stability without disrupting economic activity.
Analysts also noted that ongoing dialogue with the business community would focus on maintaining currency supply, reducing volatility, and supporting export-driven growth within the sanctioned environment. The collective view is that the decree will be executed with a degree of operational caution, prioritizing the continuity of trade and financial flows while gradually shaping the exchange mechanism to align with broader macroeconomic goals.