Andrey Kochetkov, a prominent analyst at Otkritie Investments, presented an analysis to the agency noting that a dollar shortage could emerge in economies that rely heavily on imports from the United States. He explained that for many nations there exists a dual challenge: a budget deficit and a persistent trade deficit that together create a fragile financial position. In his view, adopting or embracing a national currency for certain financial functions could serve as a practical response to these pressures, offering a potential shield against volatility in external funding. Kochetkov emphasized that the pervasive dominance of the dollar in global trade and in debt markets has made the cost of repaying foreign obligations more unpredictable, especially for countries with large dollar-denominated debt and a trade balance that does not deliver the foreign currency inflows needed to sustain those obligations. He underscored that when foreign currency inflows falter, nations can find themselves facing increased borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions, and a heightened risk of sudden capital withdrawals that magnify existing economic vulnerabilities. The analyst argued that this combination of high external debt overhang and insufficient foreign currency receipts can push several economies toward a precarious equilibrium, requiring careful policy calibration to prevent a downward spiral. He also pointed to the broader macroeconomic landscape where exchange rate expectations, reserve adequacy, and investor confidence converge to shape debt sustainability and growth prospects in emerging markets and developing economies. In Kochetkov’s view, diversifying away from a heavy dependence on the dollar could reduce exposure to price shocks and improve resilience to shifts in global financing conditions, creating room for more predictable fiscal planning and debt servicing benchmarks. He noted that policymakers should consider the tradeoffs involved, including potential implications for inflation, competitiveness, and the smooth functioning of domestic financial markets, as they evaluate whether to strengthen foreign currency buffers or to promote a more diversified currency framework. Finally, the analyst referenced a broader sentiment among global observers about the role of the dollar as a dominant reserve and invoicing currency, suggesting that shifts may unfold gradually as countries experiment with local-currency settlements or multilateral payment arrangements, while maintaining practical access to international financing when needed. The discussion aligns with evolving opinions on currency diversification as a strategic instrument for macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, particularly for economies facing persistent external vulnerabilities. A recent global opinion poll by Gallup indicated that a significant portion of the world population expects the dollar to lose its lead within the next two decades, signaling a potential reconfiguration of international finance and trade patterns in the years ahead.
