Recent analyses note a growing risk of a pronounced imbalance in Russia-India trade. A key challenge is the difficulty Russian exporters face when repatriating proceeds from oil sales into the Indian market. This view is echoed by economists who study energy flows and currency dynamics, highlighting the friction created by cross-border payments and regulatory constraints.
Using the local currency, the rupee, for purchases of Indian goods by Russia appears unlikely in the near term. The argument rests on the limited range of Indian products that would attract sustained Russian demand and yield favorable terms for Russia’s buyers. This constraint helps explain why some observers describe the trade relationship as skewed toward one side.
Experts point to a persistent trade gap between the two nations. India continues to transact with Russian suppliers in its own currency, while Russia faces barriers to withdrawing rupees and reconciling payments. As a result, bilateral trade has shown signs of asymmetry, with oil sales to India representing a substantial portion of the flow, rather than a balanced exchange of goods and services.
From this perspective, efforts to diversify the Russian import basket from India run into structural hurdles. There are concerns that India lacks a broad set of products that would be profitable for large-scale Russian procurement, especially when priced in rubles or converted through stable financial channels. Consequently, buyers in Russia have found it difficult to expand imports beyond key energy-linked purchases, limiting the potential for a more reciprocal trade pattern.
Industry observers have noted that the regulatory environment for energy trade complicates finance accessibility. In particular, Indian regulatory frameworks can impede the conversion and transfer of rupees, which affects the liquidity available for Indian energy-related exports. This dynamic has contributed to cautious lending and tighter capital flow conditions, influencing the overall attractiveness of energy-based transactions between the two economies.
In recent months, market analysts have highlighted that Russian energy exporters face challenges securing funds tied to Indian energy demand. The constraints on rupee withdrawals and the resulting funding frictions reduce the ability of Indian buyers to settle large, long-term oil contracts without resorting to alternative currencies or complex settlement arrangements. These financial frictions add to the structural imbalance evident in bilateral trade, reinforcing a pattern where oil flows dominate the relationship more than a balanced exchange of goods and services.