The price of coffee could rise sharply by the end of the year as crop shortages in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, tighten supply chains and put upward pressure on markets. This potential shift comes as Brazilian fields confront ongoing challenges that have limited harvests and sparked concern among traders and roasters alike about availability and cost.
In 2021, Brazilian coffee lands faced an unusual sequence of weather events that disrupted production. After an early drought stressed the plants, a damaging frost further reduced yields, creating a bottleneck that persisted into subsequent seasons. As a result, only a fraction of the anticipated Arabica beans could be harvested this year. Representatives from the Minasul coffee cooperative warned that the reduced harvest would leave them with only a portion of their planned volume, amplifying anxieties about whether demand could be met in a tight market.
Analysts note that global demand for coffee has remained robust, climbing for a second consecutive year even as inventories across the industry stayed unusually low. This combination has historically supported price resilience even when cafe sales and consumer demand shift with seasonal changes. Recent market activity shows a pattern of volatility, with prices moving to multi-year highs during periods of supply stress before settling back as buyers adjust and new crops come on stream. For instance, price benchmarks have reflected the tension between scarce reserves and steady consumption, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to crop health in the core producing regions. Additionally, weather patterns favorable to the South American crop have appeared intermittently, influencing forecasts and reminding traders that the path from field to cup can be unpredictable. [citation: Minasul cooperative]