Climate change is projected to shave a significant portion from Africa’s GDP by mid-century, with estimates pointing to a contraction of about 7.1% by 2050. The forecast also warns that as a consequence, up to 200 million Africans could face food insecurity, and agricultural incomes may drop by roughly 30%. These figures come from a report summarized in major outlets and based on research conducted by the Center for Global Development in collaboration with regional experts. [Cited: Bloomberg via CGD study]
The report, titled “Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Coming Decades,” argues that the developing world will bear the brunt of climate-related economic stress. While losses may appear modest up to 2050, the severity is expected to intensify afterward, with Africa identified as the region most heavily affected by climate shocks and their knock-on effects on livelihoods, health, and development momentum.
One of the lead researchers notes that if climate action remains insufficient, the socio-economic challenges facing developing countries—especially in Africa—could deepen, eroding the progress achieved over recent decades. The study emphasizes the need for rapid, coordinated policy responses to mitigate risks and protect vulnerable communities from the worst outcomes.
Forecasts consistently indicate that the average GDP per capita in Africa could fall by about 7.1% by 2050 as temperatures rise and droughts become more common. In tandem, around 200 million people may confront acute food shortages, while crop incomes could decline by approximately 30%. Taken together, these projections signal substantial economic and social disruption for the African continent, underscoring the urgency of resilient adaptation and inclusive growth strategies.
The broader context shows a spectrum of global risks tied to climate dynamics, with experts underscoring the interconnected nature of these challenges. The analysis highlights that proactive measures—ranging from sustainable agriculture and water management to climate-resilient infrastructure and social protection—are essential to cushion impacts and preserve development wins across affected regions. [Cited: Global research collaboration and context provided by the CGD-led study]
Earlier assessments have noted the importance of green investments as a stabilizing force. Investment in low-carbon technologies, enhanced energy efficiency, and nature-based solutions can strengthen economic resilience, create jobs, and support food security. The evolving evidence base continues to stress that timely, well-funded climate action yields long-term dividends for economies, communities, and future generations. [Cited: Bloomberg via CGD study]