CIAN and Kommersant Insight: February Russian Housing Market

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Despite softer demand, average prices for secondary real estate in Russia’s leading cities edged up by 1% in February, a trend reported by Kommersant. The data signals a nuanced market where price levels show resilience in some segments even as buyer interest shifts. Market observers note a growing share of discounted deals, suggesting buyers may be negotiating more favorable terms while overall price momentum slows. Analysts expect the market to cool further and for prices to ease over the coming months.

CIAN data for February show that the average supply price in the secondary market covering more than 16 million cities and two regions stood at 142.1 thousand rubles per square meter, rising by 1% for the month. January also saw a 1% increase. Yet Moscow’s average price remained higher at about 336.3 thousand rubles per square meter, underscoring a persistent regional split within the country’s urban markets.

Despite price stability in some segments, real transaction prices have declined as the share of discounted sales grows. CIAN reported that the average discount widened from 4% to 4.7% during the month, signaling softening demand. In Moscow, transaction activity fell by roughly 20% since January, highlighting a cooling market dynamic even as listings remain available.

Analysts anticipate further reductions in activity and continued downward pressure on prices. The expected accumulation of housing supply is likely to push prices lower across many districts, while the intensified use of discounts could attract attention from investors looking for entry points in the current cycle. This pattern mirrors a broader shift seen in urban real estate markets where sellers test pricing with concessions to close deals in a slower environment.

Looking ahead, experts point to several drivers that could shape the secondary market. Inventory that remains unsold may continue to compress price growth, especially in markets outside the top-tier capitals. At the same time, discount levels may serve as a lever to stimulate demand among buyers who have become more selective and finance-conscious. Even with softer price trends, the presence of large, ready-to-mellown inventory could create opportunities for investors who identify underpriced assets and favorable financing terms.

For readers tracking how much rent or lease costs have evolved, the landscape for one-bedroom units in Russia over the past five years has shown notable shifts, reflecting broader economic conditions and shifting demand. Observers note that forecasts for the future of the secondary housing market remain cautious, with price trajectories closely tied to buyer sentiment, lending conditions, and the pace at which new listings enter the market. The current pattern indicates a patient market where discounting is increasingly used as a tool to facilitate transactions rather than merely a signal of weakness.

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