China’s customs authorities maintain strict phytosanitary requirements on wheat shipped to the country. This policy constraint slows the pace of import growth from Russia even as overall bilateral trade expands, according to Bloomberg. The strict controls and procedural hurdles create a headwind for Russian supplies while China continues to seek more stable and diversified wheat sources to support its domestic needs and food security goals.
At the same time, total wheat imports into the Chinese market rose sharply in the first four months of the year, increasing by more than 60 percent versus 2022. By the end of April, China had imported roughly 6 million tons of wheat, signaling a robust demand trajectory. Yet Russia’s share remained modest at 30 thousand tons, representing about 0.5 percent of China’s total agricultural imports. The gap reflects not only phytosanitary strictures but also logistical challenges that complicate shipments and transit times for Russian wheat to reach Chinese ports and processing facilities.
In this context, Australia and Canada stand out as the leading suppliers to China’s wheat market. Australia accounted for about 59.7 percent of shipments, while Canada supplied roughly 18.3 percent. This regional and supplier diversity aligns with broader trade patterns and policy considerations shaping China’s agricultural procurement. External pressures, including Western sanctions on Russia, also influence the final mix of imports through shifts in pricing, supply chains, and supplier confidence. Bloomberg notes that these factors together help determine China’s grain security strategy and its long term sourcing relationships.
May wheat prices declined to a two year low as the grain deal extension opened additional avenues for Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products to enter the global market. In early morning trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, prices slipped to 6.05 dollars per bushel, the lowest level since April 2021. The principal driver behind this price action was the continuation of the grain agreement, which preserves access for key exporters and adds supply variants to the world market, influencing sentiment and price dynamics across major trading hubs.