Foot traffic for international flights during the so‑called golden week, which coincides with Labor Day weekend, has already surpassed the 2019 level by about 20 percent, a signal that air travel in China could influence the trajectory of oil prices. This assessment comes from a Bloomberg report that points to aviation kerosene consumption in China as the primary factor expected to boost global oil demand in 2023. Within mainland China, domestic fuel demand appears to be nearly fully recovering, signaling renewed activity across both passenger and freight sectors.
Analysts highlight that Chinese travelers will enjoy a five‑day break from April 29 to May 3 this year, and booking momentum had already started to pick up by April 18, with ticket purchases trending higher than in recent weeks. This surge aligns with a broader pattern of consumer resilience and the reopening of tourism and business travel channels after extended periods of restrictions. The wave of travel demand is expected to ripple through related markets, including energy, hospitality, and transportation sectors, contributing to a more robust domestic economy even as global conditions remain uneven.
On the supply side, Chinese state oil majors and large private players have aggressively increased crude imports from Russia in recent months. The dynamic has been a notable feature of China’s energy strategy, aiming to diversify supply sources and secure favorable terms during a period of stricter Western sanctions and price volatility. Industry dashboards show that in March 2023 China’s total imports of Russian oil reached a record high, totaling roughly 9.61 million tons for the month, which translates to about 2.26 million barrels per day when averaged over the month. This level of intake underscores the importance of Russia as a steady, long‑term supplier for China while market participants weigh geopolitical and economic risks that could influence future flows.
Beyond the immediate implications for energy markets, the trends in Chinese travel demand and oil procurement reflect a broader pattern of energy‑intensive activity tied to reopening momentum. If aviation fuel demand continues to recover alongside domestic consumption, refiners may adjust output to balance the seasonal uptick in travel with ongoing domestic industrial activity. In such a scenario, the price elasticity of crude oil could respond to shifts in Chinese demand, potentially exerting downward or upward pressure on international oil benchmarks depending on supply constraints, refinery utilization rates, and the pace of global economic recovery. Market watchers emphasize that while demand recovery in China provides a cushion for oil prices, external factors such as geopolitical developments, currency movements, and energy policy reforms in major consumers will continue to shape the trajectory of crude markets in the near term. This complex interplay illustrates why Chinese oil demand remains a critical anchor for the global energy complex as economies navigate the evolving landscape of travel, trade, and growth, with Bloomberg’s analysis serving as a reference point for investors and policymakers monitoring the sector’s sensitivity to domestic travel cycles and international crude flows.