China’s overall population of 1.4 billion does not seem enough to soak up the surplus housing stock across the country. This view comes from He Keng, formerly the deputy head of China’s statistics department, who spoke about the housing crisis and its breadth at a forum in Dongguan. Reuters summarized his take this way: the question of how many vacant homes exist is a matter of intense debate, with experts offering a wide range of estimates. Some have suggested figures that would imply housing for about three billion people, a number He Keng described as far too high. He noted that even if the economy would eventually absorb more buyers, it remains unlikely that all the empty apartments would be filled by the current population size of 1.4 billion.
The broader context is clear. China’s real estate market has been in a prolonged downturn since 2021, highlighted by the collapse of Evergrande, once a giant in Chinese construction and property development. By late August, the total unsold housing area had reached about 648 million square meters, a vast glut that continues to pressure developers and local governments alike. This surplus translates into lingering issues for land use, financing, and urban planning as builders delay new projects while buyers pause and re-evaluate their willingness to invest in real estate.
The remarks attributed to the former official sit in a tense political and economic moment, reflecting the tension between official statements about macroeconomic stability and the ground reality faced by the housing sector. Analysts argue that a sustained real estate downturn can ripple through the broader economy, affecting employment, consumer confidence, and local government revenues that rely on land sales and property taxes. The waves from Evergrande’s crisis have reverberated through many other developers, and the sector has been marked by high debt, tightened credit, and slower sales, all of which contribute to a fragile balance between supply and demand in major cities and smaller markets alike.
In August, shares of Evergrande, once a bellwether for China’s real estate market, re-entered the market after a lengthy halt in trading. The price movement over that period underscored the volatility and risk that investors associate with Chinese property developers, especially those with sizable debt burdens and exposure to market cycles that can shift rapidly. The broader industry has faced a mix of government measures intended to stabilize conditions, including policy easing and targeted support for home buyers, while officials have signaled that the path to stabilization is gradual and dependent on multiple external and internal factors.
Looking back, economists and policy observers have noted a shift in public discourse about the property sector. Earlier in the crisis, discussions were frequently constrained by caution and political sensitivity, with some voices reluctant to address the depth of the challenges. Over time, more analysts have begun to discuss the implications of a long period of lower investment in real estate, the potential for structural adjustments in housing demand, and the ways in which urban development models may need to adapt to a slower, more sustainable growth trajectory. The current narrative emphasizes resilience and reform as central to navigating the road ahead, even as uncertainties remain about how quickly transformation can take root across the housing market and related industries.
The situation continues to evolve in China, with ongoing debates about how to balance ownership, rental markets, and urban renewal efforts. For many households, housing remains a central financial decision, while for developers the focus is on liquidity, capital access, and project completion amid tighter credit conditions. The real estate sector’s health, in turn, can influence consumer sentiment, housing affordability, and the ability of local governments to fund essential services. As policymakers monitor indicators such as housing starts, sale prices, and vacancy rates, the broader economy watches closely for signals that might guide future steps toward a steadier and more inclusive housing market.