China appears set to import record volumes of Russian crude in the current month, spurred by a substantial shipment of the Sokol grade. This tranche has drawn attention because India has reportedly abandoned Sokol amid concerns about potential U.S. sanctions. The observation comes from Bloomberg, which cites Kpler data as the basis for the forecast.
According to data tracked by Kpler, China could be purchasing around 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil each day during the month. The Sokol shipments alone are projected to reach about 379,000 barrels per day, a figure that would mark an all time high and indicate a dramatic shift in buying patterns as the month unfolds.
Traders acknowledge that it remains uncertain whether all Sokol cargoes will be delivered to actual buyers or unloaded into bonded storage facilities. There is notable caution among Chinese banks when it comes to trade due to the shadow of U.S. sanctions on tankers, which complicates financing and settlement for these shipments.
The ongoing effort to clear the backlogs from Falcon shipments, notably those moving through Singapore and South Korea, continues at a steady pace. Nevertheless, actual revenue realized in China by month-end could diverge from initial projections as destinations shift and market demand evolves, according to Kpler’s assessments.
Meanwhile, sources indicate that an OPEC+ agreement has been finalized, a development that could influence Russia’s oil export revenues in the near term by altering market dynamics, pricing, and flow patterns. This geopolitical and economic backdrop adds a layer of complexity to the global oil trade picture, with implications for buyers, sellers, and financiers alike.
Adding to the latest price movement, Brent crude traded at a level near its highest point since November of the previous year, underscoring the volatility and the potential for continued fluctuations as supply routes and demand signals respond to shifting policies and market sentiment.