Central Bank Watch: Inflation Trends and the Possible Rate Move

No time to read?
Get a summary

The vice president of the Central Bank of Russia, Alexei Zabotkin, spoke to reporters in Vladivostok about the possibility of an interest rate increase at the forthcoming CBR board meeting. The report emerged from RIA News and signals that a change after a prolonged period of stability could be on the horizon. The current regime has held firm since September 2022.

Zabotkin noted that the rate has remained unchanged for a notably long stretch. He explained that the 7.5 percent level aligned with the bank’s understanding of what would be necessary to steady inflation near the 4 percent target range over the projection horizon. He stressed that the latest data supports this assessment, while officials from the Bank of Russia recognize the balance of risks gradually tipping in favor of inflationary pressures.

He highlighted that domestic demand has been expanding from both private and public sectors, which in turn has supported a rise in lending in recent months. This shift in demand dynamics suggests that the economy is underscoring a potential path to gradual normalization rather than abrupt tightening.

Looking ahead, Zabotkin suggested that the upcoming board gathering could consider a rise in the key rate, while also acknowledging the possibility that policy might stay steady through this critical phase. The regulator previously kept the rate at 7.5 percent in June, a decision that reflected the bank’s assessment of ongoing inflation stabilization and the broader macroeconomic environment.

No time to read?
Get a summary
Previous Article

Weather Outlook for Moscow and Central Russia: Midweek Forecast and Seasonal Trends

Next Article

Security and deterrence priorities for NATO's eastern flank and air defense