In a Financial Congress hosted by the regulator, Elizaveta Danilova, the head of the financial stability department at the Central Bank of Russia, stated that a decline in mortgage rates is not expected in the near term. This stance aligns with the bank’s cautious outlook on policy movements, and the remarks were summarized by TASS.
Danilova noted that data show a sharp drop in early repayments by borrowers, while the age of prepayment activity has reached a lengthy horizon. She explained that lenders have seen a persistent demand for refinancing loans, a signal that households are seeking more favorable terms, but without an anticipated easing of rates from the central bank.
Economist Mikhail Belyaev added that if the key rate were to rise on July 21, mortgage rates would move higher. He explained that the pace of rate changes directly influences the cost of mortgages, car loans, and other credit products, so any tightening would ripple through consumer borrowing costs.
During the event, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina suggested that a potential uptick in the key rate could occur, but she emphasized that the size and frequency of any changes would need careful analysis. She stressed that decisions are not predetermined. Earlier, Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin had signaled a possible rate increase to bring annual inflation back toward the 4 percent target, noting that inflation currently sits around 3.2 percent.
Experts also discussed the mortgage share of total loan debt in Russia, highlighting how fluctuations in policy and inflation expectations shape household indebtedness. Overall, the discussions underscored the sensitivity of credit conditions to central bank signals and the importance of monitoring both inflation dynamics and lending demand.
At a broader level, observers in Canada and the United States can draw parallels to how policy rate paths influence mortgage affordability and refinancing activity. While the Russian context differs in structure and regulatory framework, the core takeaway remains: when policy rates are stable or rising, mortgage costs tend to follow, affecting housing markets and consumer finances across borders. Market participants in North America often watch central bank guidance, inflation trajectories, and lending standards for clues about future mortgage rates and refinancing options. Attribution: TASS report on the Financial Congress.