The Central Bank of Russia released its review of foreign exchange activity for July, noting that the volume of currency sales by residents totaled 44.4 billion rubles as the ruble weakened. The regulator emphasizes that this figure reflects a period of notable market instability and highlights that the data come from its routine assessment of financial-market risks. During the first half of July, most sales occurred when the dollar traded above 90 rubles, underscoring how rapid currency movements influenced household and business behavior. Across the month, the ruble depreciated by 2.3 percent against the dollar, a decline that is modest when placed in the context of the prior month, where the currency fell by 10.4 percent in June. The Bank notes that July’s depreciation was comparatively restrained, suggesting some stabilization despite ongoing volatility in global markets.
Household participation dominated the activity, with residents conducting most currency trades through the nation’s largest banks, totaling 28 billion rubles, while 16.4 billion rubles were completed via over-the-counter channels. This pattern illustrates persistent preference for formal banking channels in household currency management, even as informal avenues remained visible in the OTC market.
The regulator observes a structural shift in the composition of the foreign exchange market, with increasing use of currencies from friendly economies. The yuan’s share in the market rose from 39.8 percent in June to 44 percent in July, reaching a new peak in the Russian market. Conversely, the portion of non-core or “toxic” currencies—the term used to describe riskier currencies in the local market—fell from 58.8 percent in June to 54.4 percent in July, signaling a shift toward more stable currency groups. In the over-the-counter segment, the opposite trend appeared, with the share of these riskier currencies edging up from 18.4 percent to 19.2 percent, reflecting divergent dynamics between formal and informal trading venues.
Exporters reduced their share of foreign exchange sales, with their contribution slipping from 88 percent to 84 percent in May, indicating a broader trend in the balance of payments and market activity. The regulator attributes such changes to evolving macro conditions and shifts in international demand, which in turn influence how residents and non-residents engage with the currency markets.
Industry analysts have offered reasons for the ruble’s depreciation, noting that a combination of external factors and domestic policy signals can amplify short-term currency moves. The Bank stresses that ongoing monitoring of exchange-rate pressures remains a priority as part of its broader macroprudential framework. At the same time, discussions within the Russian federation about tax policy for remote workers continue to evolve, with a single personal income tax rate now in effect for remote employment arrangements. The regulator highlights that fiscal policy developments, alongside financial-market resilience measures, contribute to the overall assessment of currency stability and risk exposure for households, firms, and financial institutions alike.