The Central Bank has highlighted that the substantial growth of concessional mortgage programs is linked to a notable rise in the prices of new apartments and a widening gap between primary market offerings and the secondary housing sector. This topic is explored in the upcoming issue of the Central Bank’s publication focused on Financial Market Risks.
Data from the bank show that the price differential between newly built homes and existing properties widened to 48% in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the same period, the mortgage loan portfolio expanded by 35%, reaching 7.8 trillion rubles, while the overall loan issuance increased by 62%. These figures point to a market where demand driven by government-supported financing continues to push values higher, especially in new construction projects.
Officials note that government-backed mortgages remain the primary source of growth, constituting about 60% of all mortgage lending in 2023. The distribution of loans with lower initial down payments has shifted as lenders raised minimum contributions and tightened capital requirements. In the fourth quarter of last year, the share of loans with down payments under 20% fell to 17%.
To curb rising indebtedness among households, the Central Bank plans to raise premiums on higher income tax brackets for mortgage lending starting March 1, 2024. The possibility of introducing mortgage limits to curb risky lending is also under consideration, signaling a more cautious stance toward credit expansion.
There is also a policy dialogue that continued in the State Duma regarding the regulation of real estate agents, indicating ongoing scrutiny of intermediary practices in the housing market.
Historically, suburban housing in the country has carried a higher price tag than urban options, reflecting factors such as land costs, transportation access, and development intensity. The current regulatory emphasis aims to balance affordability with financial stability, encouraging prudent lending while maintaining market liquidity.
These trends underscore how monetary policy signals, credit availability, and regulatory measures interact to shape pricing, access, and risk in both new and existing housing markets. Market participants including borrowers, lenders, builders, and policymakers are assessing the implications for housing affordability, household balance sheets, and long-term financial resilience. The central bank’s analyses suggest a careful, data-driven approach to capacity for lending, the durability of demand for new homes, and the alignment of mortgage products with household repayment capacity.