Despite a record-low unemployment rate in Russia’s labor market, shortages of workers amid ongoing economic restructuring can push salaries higher, sometimes independent of direct performance results. This trend was noted in the Central Bank report titled “What Trends Say.”
“The growing rigidity of the labor market drives wage increases without a clear link to productivity or outcomes. The regulator’s assessment points out that persistent worker shortages may slow down structural transformation efforts,” the report observes.
Simultaneously, the scarcity of personnel in Russia can create bottlenecks in the processes of economic restructuring. In contrast, analysts from the Central Bank warned that a quicker rise in wages, paired with only modest gains in labor productivity, could fuel inflation if not balanced by productivity gains across sectors.
From a structural viewpoint, the Russian economy appears somewhat weaker than in 2021 when considering the mix of labor resources, fixed capital, and the technological level. Regulators emphasize that both the quantity and quality of the workforce influence the pace and success of modernization and investment cycles.
As of January 31, Central Bank experts stated that economic activity in Russia has maintained a high growth trajectory since late 2022. At the start of 2023, indicators surpassed quarterly forecasts, although analysts stress that demand should be calibrated to support prudent increases in budget expenditures. The emphasis remains on sustaining demand while avoiding overheating, with attention to wage dynamics and productivity as key balancing forces.