The Russian secondary housing market has entered a period of notable adjustment, with the available stock of existing homes declining by about 20 percent and reaching a low point not seen in the last two years. This shift was reported by Vedomosti and reflects broader trends in consumer behavior and lending conditions that are shaping what sellers and buyers are willing to do in today’s market.
Between the start of December 2023 and the start of December 2022, the number of apartments offered in the secondary market fell from roughly 788.5 thousand to 651.6 thousand. When the data is extended to include smaller cities, the gap becomes even more pronounced, with listings dropping from about 1.3 million to around 1.08 million over the same period. Analysts point to a common thread behind these numbers: prospective sellers are rethinking their plans in a climate of higher borrowing costs and tighter credit access, which reduces the likelihood that owners will list their homes for sale while prices remain uncertain or mortgage terms are less favorable for buyers.
The surge in mortgage rates is cited as a principal factor keeping households from moving. Higher monthly payments and a more cautious lending environment have restrained activity in the secondary market, even as some price stabilization or modest declines in new-home prices emerge. In 2024, experts expect demand for second homes to stay subdued as potential buyers weigh the cost of financing against the appeal of purchasing existing properties in a market where price trajectories remain uncertain and mortgage products evolve with tighter underwriting standards.
Historically, the share of mortgage transactions in the secondary market has shown fluctuations, and recent observations suggest a cooling effect that aligns with the broader tightening in credit availability. Analysts note that some buyers may still pursue financing, but the combination of higher rates and careful risk assessment by lenders has cooled enthusiasm for many purchases. In this environment, sellers who do enter the market often seek to optimize timing and pricing, while buyers demonstrate greater selectivity, prioritizing long-term value, neighborhood quality, and potential for future appreciation. Market participants continue to monitor policy shifts, lender guidance, and macroeconomic signals as they shape the pace and direction of activity in the private housing sector. The overall picture indicates a balancing act where price movements and inventory levels respond to evolving financial conditions and consumer confidence, rather than a single dominant driver. According to industry observers, the trend may gradually ease if mortgage affordability improves and credit conditions loosen, but until then the secondary market will likely experience slower turnover and carefully considered offers.