The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Board of Directors is widely anticipated to hold the key rate at 7.5% when it meets on February 10. This consensus comes from Bloomberg’s survey of economists and a broad roster of market watchers who project stability in policy for the near term.
In the same vein, eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change to the 7.5% level, reflecting a shared belief that monetary conditions and inflation readings warrant no adjustment at this juncture. Five of the six experts interviewed by another wire also align with this view, underscoring a broad accord among leading analysts about the appropriate stance for Russian policy next week.
The last move by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation came in September of the previous year, when the rate was cut from 8% to 7.5%. Since then, the bank has held the rate steady in October and December meetings, reinforcing the sense that the central bank favors a cautious, data-driven approach. Market observers note that the bank typically avoids shifting the rate for more than two consecutive meetings, a pattern that previously appeared during the 2020–2021 period when the bank navigated extraordinary economic conditions.
Looking back, the era following the pandemic saw a rapid easing cycle, with the rate sliding from 6.25% to a historic trough of 4.25% by July 2020. The rate then lingered at that floor for several meetings, setting the stage for a gradual tightening phase that began afterwards. Analysts highlight that today’s policy stance continues to balance growth considerations with embedded inflation signals, exchange rate dynamics, and external financial developments, including commodity price trends and global demand factors.
Vladislav Antonov, a former financial analyst at BitRiver, noted that the ruble’s path in February will be shaped by several simultaneous factors, including the level set by the CBR, possible shifts in OPEC+ policy, and other macroeconomic indicators. Observers emphasize that currency movements in the near term will reflect how investors interpret the central bank’s signal alongside evolving energy market developments and international liquidity conditions. In this environment, traders watch for any subtle cues from the CBR that could alter rate expectations, even if a rate pause remains the most probable outcome in the immediate horizon.