The Russian Ministry of Construction has outlined a cautious, rather than optimistic, projection for the nation’s housing development plan. Sources describe the draft strategy as presenting a set of scenarios that could shape how much housing gets built in the coming years, with particular attention to shifts in volume and pace across regions and project types.
In the pessimistic scenario, the plan targets the construction of 120 million square meters of housing by 2030, but the projection now suggests this goal will not be reached. The latest read on the scenario indicates a cap of around 100 million square meters by 2030, with a gradual increase to roughly 118 million square meters by 2035. Such figures reflect dramatic revisions in expectations and underscore the sensitivity of the sector to macroeconomic conditions as well as policy signals from central authorities.
According to the document, the total volume of housing commissioned in 2024 is forecast at about 72 million square meters. This would represent a drop of about 22 percent compared with the volume achieved in 2021. Within this overall figure, the segment of apartment buildings is expected to bear the heaviest impact, with a projected decline of about one third to around 29 million square meters. The forecast also points to a potential reduction in the share of high-rise construction, estimated at roughly 12 percent, signaling a notable shift in the mix of residential projects moving forward.
Insiders note that the strategy is slated for a formal review in the middle of the year, as the ministry continues to refine the document in response to evolving economic conditions and construction demand. While officials have refrained from explicit commentary on the draft’s content at this stage, they emphasized that work on the strategy remains ongoing and that no final conclusions have been drawn yet. The broader context remains one of balancing ambition with the realities facing developers and municipalities alike as the market adjusts to external pressures.
Industry observers have also warned that developers may curb investment activity in new construction sites by a substantial margin due to ongoing economic headwinds. In the prior year, investment in construction sites reached a notable level, but projections for the next period suggest a meaningful contraction. Analysts emphasize that sanctions, market volatility, and tighter financing conditions could all contribute to a measurable decline in project funding, testing the sector’s resilience as it seeks to maintain new construction momentum in a challenging environment [citation: RBC] [citation: Kommersant].