Next week the dollar is expected to trade in a range around 97 to 99 rubles. This assessment comes from an analyst connected with a Moscow brokerage, noting that the near-term trajectory for the ruble hinges on how exporters adjust their FX sales in the coming days.
The first week of the month typically sees a softening in the ruble as exporters reduce their foreign currency sales, a pattern that seems to have played out in recent session dynamics on Friday. While underlying fundamentals point toward a strengthening of the ruble, that improvement is projected to occur gradually and over a longer horizon than a single week.
On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the dollar traded a touch above 98 rubles on Friday, with the euro around 103 rubles, reflecting the broader currency mix in investor sentiment.
A respected economist and professor from a major Russian university offered a cautious view that ruble stabilization could emerge in December. The expert noted that current exchange rate levels against the dollar and the euro carry a speculative flavor, suggesting a 90 to 95 ruble per dollar band could be sufficient for a period. Official forecasts previously suggested the ruble might firm toward the mid-90s by year-end, though market dynamics remain sensitive to both domestic policy signals and global risk appetite.
A high-ranking official in the Russian economic ministry acknowledged the possibility that the dollar could stabilize around the mid-90s by year-end. In the same vein, the head of a leading parliamentary committee on financial markets expressed confidence that the ruble would gain strength through this year, with that trend expected to continue into the next year.
Earlier discussions from a major executive had indicated reservations about addressing ruble exchange-rate issues through a model borrowed from another economy, suggesting a preference for context-specific policy responses rather than direct replication of abroad strategies.