By the end of the year, North Sea Brent crude is expected to trade around $95 per barrel. The trajectory will be shaped by the production decisions of several OPEC+ members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, as analysts at Goldman Sachs and other institutions have revised their outlooks in light of these moves, according to Bloomberg reporting.
Previously, Goldman Sachs models pointed to Brent at roughly $90 per barrel by December. Yet the latest shift reflects an unexpected commitment by a number of OPEC+ producers to cut daily output, a move that alters the prior forecast and underscores the influence of coordinated supply restrictions on the price path.
Goldman Sachs economists emphasize that OPEC+ now wields substantial pricing power, a departure from earlier dynamics. The surprise in supply cuts aligns with a broader strategy of proactive production management. Together with ongoing reductions from Russia, this combination has prompted the bank to lift its Brent forecast from $90 to $95 a barrel for the December horizon.
In parallel, the firm has adjusted its December 2024 outlook for Brent, noting that the North Sea crude price may settle closer to $100 per barrel, rather than the previously projected $95, based on the updated assessment.
Reports around early April from Bloomberg highlighted the global market reaction to the broad coalition of OPEC+ producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, opting to curb output. Market observers described the decision as a major surprise that could reverberate through energy markets and the wider economy. Looking ahead, the sustained price pressure from higher energy costs could influence global growth trajectories, as central banks carry on with tighter monetary policies to manage inflation and financial stability.