Barclays analysts have revised downward their 2024 average price forecast for Brent crude by eight dollars, setting a new expectation at 85 per barrel. The update was reported by RBC Investments, reflecting a broader view on commodity markets and energy demand dynamics.
The projection for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remains aligned with the Brent view, with a forecast of 81 per barrel for 2024. This parallel adjustment highlights a consistent assessment across the main U.S. and global benchmarks amid shifting supply and demand signals.
Several factors underpin the revision. Market participants expect a larger-than-anticipated surplus supply, even as global growth shows signs of slowing. Analysts point to softer fuel consumption in key regions, including China, Europe, and the United States, as a drag on price momentum.
On the supply side, higher crude production in the United States is anticipated to continue, supported by robust crude inventories and steady output. Additionally, exports from Iran and the United Arab Emirates are expected to rise, contributing to a world market where supply could exceed demand in the near term. Barclays reasons that this excess supply should pressure prices downward, especially if demand does not pick up as hoped.
Despite the near-term headwinds, the bank also notes room for prices to recover from current levels. The forecast assumes a gradual stabilization and renewed demand growth through 2024, as economies gradually regain momentum and consumption patterns normalize post-pandemic adjustments.
Analysts emphasize the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical developments and unexpected shifts in global macroeconomic policy. While distributions of risk remain wide, the central scenario foresees a modest rebound in activity and a corresponding lift in prices, once demand fundamentals regain traction.
In related energy market dynamics, discussions around Russian oil and gas revenue have persisted as global trade flows recalibrate. Market observers have noted that price pressures, sanctions, and shifting supply routes continue to influence the pricing landscape.