A statement from Anatoly Aksakov, who chairs the Committee on Financial Markets in Russia’s State Duma, highlights a clear link between inflation trends and the Central Bank of Russia’s policy stance. If price growth accelerates, the central bank is likely to consider lifting the key policy rate. This interpretation was reported by URA.ru and underscores how authorities view monetary policy as a tool to curb inflationary pressure while maintaining financial stability.
Aksakov argues that a psychological level of 100 rubles per US dollar plays a role in market psychology, but its practical impact on consumer or business sentiment is limited. Instead, he stresses that the core concern is inflation and how fluctuations in the ruble’s exchange rate feed into price increases. In his view, market expectations can be influenced by exchange-rate signals, yet the ultimate objective remains inflation control, not currency levels alone.
He notes that the central bank would respond to ruble depreciation with caution, acknowledging that intervening to stabilize the exchange rate could itself have inflationary consequences. In this sense, the regulator’s tools are chosen not merely to defend a currency peg but to shape the price dynamics that influence household budgets and corporate costs.
Earlier remarks from Elvira Nabiullina, who leads the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, touched on the possibility of a rate increase at the upcoming meeting in mid-September. Nabiullina emphasized that the bank would consider a rate cut only if inflation cools down, signaling a data-driven approach that weighs a range of indicators before making policy moves. The bank is expected to factor various September data points into its decision on the trajectory of the key rate.
In the recent past, the Bank of Russia took an unexpectedly aggressive step by raising the key rate to a double-digit level during an unscheduled meeting, underscoring a willingness to act decisively when inflation risks surge. This move illustrates how the central bank uses rate changes to influence inflation expectations, financial conditions, and the broader economy, even when such actions carry tradeoffs for growth and credit conditions.