The yuan is not freely convertible, and despite shifting global dynamics, it remains uncertain whether it will become more valuable to Russia than the dollar within the next five years. This view comes from a notable former Russian economy minister who leads a centrist political group, voiced through a major news outlet. The core idea is simple: given China’s heavy focus on its own national interests, the yuan’s trajectory depends on how much China liberalizes its financial markets and expands the yuan’s convertibility, rather than on a unilateral push from other countries.
A key question in this debate is whether there exists a reliable probability that the yuan will overtake the dollar in the near term as the preferred currency for Russia’s international trade and financial activities. The position held by the former official suggests caution: while the yuan could become more important if China broadens its financial openness and advances the yuan toward full convertibility, there is no guarantee of that outcome, and current conditions do not indicate an imminent shift.
On the broader stage of international settlements, the share of the dollar has shown only modest declines in recent years. Yet there has not been a fundamental reshaping of the currency landscape that would compel a wholesale reallocation of reserve assets or clearing channels. This restraint reflects the entrenched role of the dollar in global finance, reinforced by longstanding monetary and economic systems that favor stability and predictability, even as nascent shifts in currency usage appear from time to time.
In the realm of cross-border payments, the yuan’s footprint has risen slowly but visibly in benchmark payment networks. The latest figures indicate a noticeable but controlled increase in the yuan’s share of transactions processed through major clearing and messaging infrastructures. While this growth marks progress, it sits alongside continued dominance of the dollar in both bilateral and multilateral settlements. The overall trend shows gradual tolerance for diversification, rather than an abrupt replacement of the dollar as the primary vehicle for international payments.
Observers note that the real test for the yuan as a potential reserve currency hinges on multiple factors beyond market mechanics. These include political will, financial market maturity, regulatory alignment, and credible assurances about rule of law and policy predictability. Only when these elements align can a country consider adopting the yuan as a true international liquidity anchor. Until then, the currency’s role will likely remain incremental, influenced by trade flows, financial integration, and the strategic interests of the country issuing the yuan. In this context, Russia, like many others, watches China’s progress with cautious interest, mindful that any meaningful shift would require a durable combination of openness, stability, and sustained growth in yuan-denominated financial channels.