The potential addition of Russia to the International Financial Crimes Task Force (FATF) blacklist would likely bring more harm to the Russian economy and its people than the disruption caused by cutting off access to the International Interbank Information Transfer and Processing System (SWIFT). According to Vasily Solodkov, head of the Banking Institute at the National Research University, such a listing could severely constrain cross-border payments, effectively limiting money transfers from Russia to other countries and complicating international financial operations in ways that go beyond a simple SWIFT disconnection.
Since joining FATF in 2003, Russia has been expected to implement measures designed to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism, as laid out by the intergovernmental body. The prospect of being placed on FATF’s blacklist hinges on multiple factors, including how Russia manages its financial relations with countries already under FATF scrutiny. Iran, for instance, is currently on the list for its own troubling experiences with illicit financial flows, and other nations such as North Korea and Myanmar also appear in FATF’s broader framework. The evolving landscape of these relationships can influence how Russia’s compliance posture is perceived by FATF members and by global financial markets alike.
FATF’s core mission is to identify and curb illegal transfers that circumvent financial controls. Iran has frequently been cited as a major source of such transfers, and Russia has sought to deepen cooperation with Iran at the level of central banks. This collaboration could raise the likelihood of inadvertent or intentional noncompliance signals that feed into FATF’s risk assessments. In turn, the risk of blacklisting rises, and with it the prospect that ordinary money transfers involving Russia could face heightened scrutiny, delays, or outright refusals from banks across the globe. The practical consequence would be tighter constraints on Russia’s financial connectivity and greater friction in its international payments landscape.