The dollar and euro are rising in price on the stock market. But financiers do not recommend buying them

On Monday, August 15th, dollar and euro prices started to rise on the Moscow Stock Exchange. Exchange rates continued to rise on August 16. At 15.55, the dollar stood at 61.38 rubles, the euro – 62.3 rubles.

BCS Mir Investments stockbroker Valery Yemelyanov noted that the dollar and euro strengthened as imports grew, including from China – Russian companies needed more currency to pay foreign suppliers. Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments’ Global Research Department, suggested this week that some weakening of the ruble could be due to the conversion of deposit receipts as well as the return of investors from friendly countries to the Moscow Stock Exchange bond market. converted into shares.

Is it worth buying dollars and euros now?

Russians can buy dollars and euros on the Moscow Stock Exchange and the interbank market. But Syrovatkin is now confident that it is worth buying the currency only for cash: any non-cash currency can be easily frozen.

Some experts believe that the currency is not worth buying right now. Including – due to commissions for servicing foreign currency deposits of Russians, promoted by many banks. Accordingly, the financiers noted that storing currency in accounts can be expensive for citizens.

Tinkoff Bank announced on the morning of June 9 that it was launching a commission, the fees have been in effect since June 23. The commission is 12% per year and is charged daily. At the same time, the measures will not affect those who have less than $ 1,000 in their account. Raiffeisen introduced a similar commission: the bank receives 0.2% per month (but not less than $ 10) for more than $ 5,000, euros, pounds sterling. , Swiss franc and yen. On June 10, Uralsib, RNKB, Avangard and others were added to the list. Rosbank has announced its plans to introduce commissions in the future. Everyone’s circumstances are different.

“Buy dollars and euros [в безналичном виде] now it’s not worth it. It will be impossible to cash them out, at least in the short term. Money cannot be protected from increased fees for maintaining accounts and high rates for currency transactions.

In fact, the conditions for dealing with dollars and euros for ordinary citizens are no longer prohibited. The real profitability of currency instruments that take into account inflation is deeply negative,” said Yury Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA agency.

In his opinion, the most pressing question is, is it worth converting current savings in foreign currency into rubles now, or is it better to wait? Belikov says that despite possible losses during the transformation, arguments in his favor began to prevail. The head of the bank’s analytical department “BKF” Maxim Osadchiy agreed with him.

“It seems that depositors will have to get rid of dollars and euros in Russian bank accounts. And due to the fees imposed by banks and the extension of the ban on withdrawing cash from accounts. “In conditions where the banks themselves encourage “devaluation” of their depositors, Russians are forced to either hold the money in cash or withdraw it from abroad,” he said.

Maxim Timoshenko, head of financial markets operations at Russian Standard Bank, suggested that the yuan should be considered as an alternative to the dollar and euro if currency diversification is required.

What are the risks to be aware of?

Yemelyanov listed the main risk that Russians should consider when buying foreign currency, possible sanctions against the National Clearing House of correspondent banks. He explained that this could make the currency more expensive for Russians.

“I think this is an extremely likely event. Such sanctions will primarily hit countries that buy Russian raw materials. But the fact that such a scenario is being discussed increases the risks and makes it more expensive to hold dollars and euros for brokers, banks and then their customers. Therefore, now “The main problem is the commissions. It is not clear when they will be reduced or canceled. But most likely this is a temporary phenomenon,” he said.

What about the dollar and the euro?

According to Belikov, the current exchange rate of the dollar and euro is largely determined by the administration rather than by market instruments.

“Depending on the interests of exporters in this matter, it is quite possible that the ruble will weaken moderately against the US dollar and the euro. But it will not be strong, and there is no reason to expect an exchange rate conditionally in the region of 100 rubles per US dollar.

According to Yemelyanov, strengthening of all major currencies against the ruble is almost inevitable.

“So far, imports have been suppressed, but this is abnormal and will improve. In contrast, exports and inflows of hard currencies will decrease due to the new energy policy of the USA and EU, as well as the onset of recession.

We are talking about months at least, but for the coming years, the main forecast for the ruble has fallen, while for the base currencies it has risen,” he said.

According to Syrovatkin’s forecasts, the dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year, against the backdrop of the decrease in export revenues of the Moscow Stock Exchange and the increase in demand for foreign currency with the gradual recovery of imports.

“We do not expect drastic movements in the dollar-ruble pair in September. And we believe that the couple’s proposals will remain in the range of 60-65 rubles, with possible short-term attempts to break up, ”the statement said.