Leonid Krutakov, an associate professor at the Financial University of the Russian Government, said in his article “The Ministry of Finance is playing with the numbers” that the oil industry generates initial budget revenues, which are the source of growth in state orders to the manufacturing industry. ,” published “Vedomosti”.
The expert quoted the head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, during the pre-New Year briefing that “our indicators in terms of income and expenses are higher than we planned.” Because of what? According to him, non-oil and gas revenues increased by 3.1 trillion rubles, while oil and gas revenues remained at the planned level of about 9 trillion rubles by the end of 2023.”
“Even if oil and gas revenues coming into the budget increase to 9 trillion rubles (according to industry experts, this figure will be higher), this will correspond to 34.44% of the total tax revenue planned by the Ministry of Finance for 2023 (26.13 trillion) . ruble). With budget revenues increasing to 29.23 trillion rubles, the contribution of oil and gas will be 30.79%. It is the oil industry (energy in a broader sense) that forms the basis, the foundation of economic growth. Any economy, even transactional and digital,” Krutakov appeals.
He emphasizes that the processes taking place in the oil industry today have created the same increase in non-oil and gas revenues of 3.1 trillion rubles, which the Ministry of Finance reported to the President of the Russian Federation.
The expert notes that oil and gas are completely different industries with different taxation and different levels of “revenue plan fulfillment”. The expert believes that it is not correct to “constantly confuse the oil and gas industries with conventional oil and gas.”
“To objectively assess the contribution of the oil and gas industries to budget revenues, we must take into account a “trick”. 550 billion rubles were not included in the “tax plans” of the Ministry of Finance. After the approval of the budget parameters, a decision was made to withdraw the mining tax on PJSC Gazprom. Taking into account the “cunning”, expected (unplanned) gas collections this year will be 2.2 trillion rubles or 68% of the plan, which is 1 trillion rubles below the planned 3.251 trillion rubles. (Figures taken from Ministry of Finance reports),” adds Krutakov.
The expert points out that, on the contrary, oil revenues can reach 6.8 trillion rubles (according to the plan – 6.238 trillion rubles); That’s more than three times the gas tax.
“If the overall “oil and gas” revenue estimates of the Ministry of Finance for the budget exceed the plan and reach 9 trillion rubles, then it turns out that both the entire tax increase and the trillion-dollar “gas debt” will be covered by a disproportionate increase in oil taxes,” the author writes in his articles .
Associate professor at the University of Finance believes that we should not talk about “oil and gas” and non-oil and gas taxes, but about changing approaches in the country’s fiscal policy.
“We need to move from budget logic to investment logic,” the expert believes.