According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, the cost of the dollar at 13:20 Moscow time is 91.6101 rubles, while the euro is 99.395 rubles.
The ruble exchange rate has fallen against the dollar and euro for the fourth day in a row since November 30, when the November tax period ended and exporters began to sell foreign currency less actively. Additionally, oil prices have been falling since November 30 following the OPEC+ meeting – Brent prices fell from $83 per barrel to $78.
“December is a seasonally weak month in terms of the ruble exchange rate. “In December, Russia traditionally makes the largest budget expenditure of the year – as a result, the supply of rubles on the market increases, part of which goes to the purchase of imports, and part directly to the purchase of foreign currency.” – commented Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst of Sovcombank.
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance at the Russian University of Economics for Sustainable Development. GV Plekhanov Ayaz Aliyev added that investors saw that the dollar was oversold and bought it back.
“This is confirmed by the actions of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The Ministry allocated a budget dollar for 90 rubles It follows They won’t let the dollar fall too much“, commented the economist.
Among other negative factors for the ruble, Vasiliev listed the acceleration of inflation and the continued outflow of capital from Russia – citizens and companies continue to withdraw money from the country. According to Vasiliev’s forecasts, this trend may intensify by the end of the year.
“Some Russians will go on holiday abroad for the New Year’s holiday, which will increase the demand for foreign currency in December. The analyst suggested that at the end of the year, some market participants may intensify their foreign exchange purchases to get through the long New Year holidays.
What will be the maximum values of the dollar and euro?
“The closest serious technical hurdle for the dollar is the level.” 92.5 rublesfor euro – 100 rubles. “The forced sales of most of the foreign exchange earnings by exporters and the impact of the Central Bank’s harsh policy on the key interest rate may prevent the impulse for a deeper devaluation of the ruble,” said Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments. .
According to Aliyev, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 93-95 rubles and the euro to 102-105 rubles in the future.
“These levels will be due to the high demand for foreign currency before the New Year and foreign trips. The dollar generally strengthens in December. However, growth above these levels does not seem possible. Dollar and euro will be traded in these ranges until the end of the year. This is the equilibrium rate at the moment, considering the current situation,” explained the economist.
When will the ruble begin to strengthen?
According to Bakhtin, dollar and euro exchange rates may begin to decline from mid-month, when the Central Bank meeting will be held, and exporters may begin to prepare for the tax season in advance.
“In the last week of December, the ruble will be supported by the December tax period. We expect Russian exporters to be more active in selling foreign currency and buying rubles for payments to the budget. Russian companies must pay mineral extraction tax (MET), value added tax (VAT), personal income tax (NDFL) and other taxes by December 28,” Vasiliev said.
He explained that the presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings for the largest exporters remains a positive factor for the ruble exchange rate.
The ruble may strengthen slightly in the second half of December. The ruble will be supported by the possible increase in the key interest rate and the December tax period.
“At the next meeting on December 15, the Bank of Russia will increase the key interest rate by another 100-200 basis points to 16-17%. If inflation continues to rise at a high rate, the rate will likely be raised to 17 percent, the analyst said.
Vasiliev added that the increase in interest rate will lead to a further increase in the cost of credit, which will further reduce consumer and investment demand, including import demand, and reduce the demand for foreign currency. This will also play in favor of the ruble. The analyst also said that the increase in deposit rates will increase the attractiveness of ruble savings and increase the demand for the Russian currency.
According to Bakhtin, towards the end of the year the dollar may approach 2017 levels. 90 rubles, euro – 95-97 rubles.
Source: Gazeta
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