On October 26, the State Duma approved in the first reading the draft federal budget for the period from 2024 to 2026. From those involved as follows: documentNext year’s financial plan features a sharp increase in both revenue and expenses of 22% and 16% respectively.
320 MPs voted in favor and 80 MPs voted against.
The document was presented to parliament on 29 September. The second and third readings will be held on November 15 and 17.
Rising costs
Expenses are expected to reach 36.66 trillion rubles in 2024, 34.382 trillion rubles in 2025 and 35.587 trillion rubles in 2026.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said budget expenditures will double in five years.
“Compared with the nineteenth year, dear MPs, the volume of expenses has doubled. “In five years, next year’s expenses will essentially double,” Siluanov said (quoted by TASS).
The share of national defense expenditures will increase from 21.2 percent (in 2023) to 29.4 percent. Compared with the current year, growth will be 68%: costs will increase from 6.4 trillion in 2023 to 10.8 trillion rubles in 2024. For the first time, this category will surpass social policy in terms of the amount of allocated funds (8 trillion rubles). The other 9.2% (3.4 trillion RUB) is planned to be spent on “National Security and Law Enforcement”.
One of the state budget priorities in the document is targeted support for families with children. “In particular, 4.4 trillion rubles were provided for the payment of a single aid in 2024-2026. “This will allow them to serve over 10 million citizens,” he explains. Press release State Duma.
About 1.6 trillion rubles will be spent on maternity capital, and more than 482 billion rubles will be spent on programs to improve housing for families with children.
What about income?
Federal budget revenues are expected to be 35.065 trillion rubles in 2024, 33.552 trillion rubles in 2025 and 34.051 trillion rubles in 2026.
Siluanov emphasized that the current budget policy allows “to protect our economy and finances from external risks, since the sanctions regime has not been lifted.”
“External factors affecting revenue streams are also highly variable. “For this reason, the budget for the next three years is being prepared by taking into account the budget principles and rules that determine the safe level of expenditure and will not cause imbalance in the budget,” he said.
The minister also added that every year “we have exceeded revenue growth forecasts and plans to increase indirect revenue”. “I am confident that next year we will fulfill all the tasks we have planned, taking into account the measures aimed at improving the management that we have mentioned,” he concluded.
In 2024, 1.3 trillion rubles will be allocated from the National Welfare Fund to “balance” the budget. Another source of financing the state budget deficit in 2024-2026 will be government borrowing.
oil revenues
On the eve of the Federation Council approved the changes It was included in the Russian Budget Law, which provides for the budget rule to be calculated based on a base oil price of $60 per barrel. The bill was submitted to the State Duma simultaneously with the draft federal budget.
According to the document, the base price of oil will be indexed at an annual rate of 2 percent starting from 2027. At the same time, it is planned to determine the base oil and gas revenues from the base prices of natural gas, as well as the export alternative of AI-92 diesel and fifth class diesel.
The basic export price of natural gas will be 250 dollars per thousand cubic meters. It will be indexed at a rate of 2% every year starting from 2027.
Additional treasury revenues above the base price from oil supplies abroad are sent to the National Welfare Fund. The Ministry of Finance proposes next year to return to calculating the parameters of the budget rule not from oil and gas revenues, but from the base oil price of $ 60 per barrel.