The world economy has not experienced a global financial crisis in 15 years, the longest shock-free period in modern history.he is writing RBC with reference to experts. They listed nine possible triggers of a new financial crisis and noted that if such a scenario occurred, the negative impact on Russia would be minimal.
The first two triggers are “energy with a green transition” and “putting up barriers to global trade and investment,” says the director of the Center for Economic Policy Research at the Faculty of Economics at Moscow State University. MV Lomonosov Oleg Buklemeshev.
The third factor he calls Africa, which needs to be fed with its increasing population and employed in production.
Alexey Vedev, head of the financial research laboratory of the Gaidar Institute, called the fourth trigger the tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.
“Economies have already adapted to cheap money, and when there is a sharp change, and for a developed economy the transition of the key interest rate from zero to 5% is very reasonable, a crisis may well occur,” the economist explained.
Alexander Shirov, Director of the National Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, suggested that a new global financial crisis could cause stagnation in the share of world trade in the gross domestic product of the world’s countries. In his view, China and other countries have “grown in size and economic power,” but “the factors that allowed them to do so no longer work the way they used to.” The economist called this the main contradiction.
Experts said that in addition to the problems in the Chinese economy and the emergence of bubbles that could create a “domino effect” in world economies, geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence technologies could also trigger the crisis.
Vedev expressed that he is confident that if a global financial crisis occurs, it will have a minimal impact on Russia under current conditions. According to him, “the country is now experiencing internal problems.” These include the inflation rate, exchange rate and distorted balance of payments structure.
15 years ago, on September 15, 2008, the fourth largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy due to record positions in mortgage bonds, many of which were backed by toxic subprime mortgages. The collapse of the bank marked the beginning of the global financial crisis. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the Russian economy shrank by 1.3% due to the Russia-Georgia conflict and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In 2009, the domestic economy collapsed by 7.8%. That’s still a record from the mid-1990s.
Previously “socialbites.ca” saidHow will the decline in the Chinese economy affect Russia?
Source: Gazeta
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