VEB Research and Expertise Institute has predicted that the growth of the Russian economy will be 2.7% by the end of 2023, but next year the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Russian Federation will increase by only 1.1%. In this respect he is writing RBC.
The institute writes that a rise in GDP to 2.7 percent this year will ensure the active development of manufacturing industries and consumer demand.
However, experts expect a slowdown in GDP growth from the second half of this year due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Analysts believe that GDP growth in Russia in the 2024-2026 period will be limited by sanctions pressure, budget consolidation and low global economic growth. Growth may slow to 1.1 percent next year and will be 2.3 percent and 2 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
VEB is also confident that the Russian economy can accelerate up to 3.5-4% per annum, with the loosening of monetary policy, the creation of an effective system of international payments other than the dollar and the euro, and increased investments. from the revenues of large private and state companies. Analysts say the chemical, construction and mechanical engineering sectors could be drivers of GDP growth in the Russian Federation.
The Center’s Deputy Director General Vladimir Salnikov said that VEB’s restrained forecast for 2024 can be explained by the “inter-year variation effect” – the more growth included in the expectations for the current year, the less growth potential there will be in the next year. For Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Forecast. Although there is no sustainable decline, he did not ignore that the sector will show negative growth in the third quarter. In addition, the tightening of the Central Bank’s key interest rate policy will also affect the GDP growth rate. On August 15, the regulator increased this rate by 350 basis points to 12% year-on-year. Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Finam Financial Group, noted that the effects of the increase in interest rates and the decrease in the budget momentum can be seen towards the end of this year and next year.
According to the updated forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the country’s GDP growth in 2023 is expected to be 1.2%, and in 2024 – 2%.
Formerly CBR has been described Three scenarios for the development of the Russian economy until 2026.