Increasing the key rate to 12% per annum will help correct the current situation until the markets rebalance, but will not lead to a strengthening of the ruble. This opinion was expressed by the former head of the Bank of Russia, Sergei Dubinin, in an interview with socialbites.ca. According to him, an increase in the key rate will be able to maintain the exchange rate of 90-95 rubles per dollar for several months.
“I believe the Central Bank has little room for maneuver. The most important thing they could do was raise the key rate, which would not automatically lead to a strengthening of the ruble. Instead, it will simply rectify the current situation until the markets rebalance and it becomes clear who feels what with this new cost of credit. Importers may delay official and parallel import purchases to see if they can now sell the products they plan to import. The measures of the Central Bank are sufficient to maintain the corridor that Maxim Oreshkin has set between 90-95 rubles per dollar for several months, but it is clear that there will be no return to the figure of 50-60 rubles. .
Dubinin noted that another tool to strengthen the ruble could be the sale of all foreign exchange earnings. At the same time, there may be difficulties in sales made through banks that are not subject to sanctions.
“Currently, exporters – oil companies, oil and oil products, Gazprom, as well as companies working on liquefied gas – leave some of their foreign currency earnings within Russia to access the dollar and not buy it again, without selling it inside Russia. Sunday. Within Russia, when you have to pay your own numerous costs for technical equipment and transportation. They were allowed to leave some of this seemingly important income offshore, which was unlikely to be arrested during the sanctions. Of course, it is possible to impose a rule that would require that all this be sold first in Russia and then bought again. Technologically, this is also linked to which banks will pass everything, which of course are not under sanctions. This is also a complication that, in general, can now be avoided. In my opinion, now not only the Bank of Russia, but also the government has taken a certain break: a sharp, rather shocking increase in the rate, a slowdown in the operations of buying dollars and converting the dollar to rubles, ”she explained.
On August 15, the Central Bank of Russia increased the policy rate from 8.5% to 12% annually. The Central Bank announced that such a decision aims to provide the monetary conditions and domestic demand dynamics necessary for inflation to return to 4% in 2024 and stabilize it in the future. After raising the key rate, the ruble exchange rate fell to 98 rubles per dollar. Subsequently, the Bank of Russia leadership allowed the key rate to be raised in case of increased pro-inflationary risks.
Earlier it was known how the weakening of the ruble will affect the state of the economy.