Now it is advisable to focus on the second scenario for the development of the Russian economy – increased fragmentation. BCS World of Investments stockbroker Mikhail Zeltser commented on this to socialbites.ca. specification The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has published three scenarios for the development of the Russian economy until 2026.
“Against the high uncertainty of the moment, it is more appropriate to focus on the middle option. Fragmentation is accelerating and this option (middle) is reinforced by a new factor, Africa, in addition to the Ukraine problem. “This means that our Western partners will try to increase the pressure through restrictions, if possible,” he said.
According to him, inflation is already accelerating and the dollar rate remains above 90 rubles for a long time. The impact of imported inflation is reflected in domestic prices, and the Central Bank is likely to be tougher on key interest rate and monetary policy. Zeltser is confident that the option with a 10% annual key rate cannot be withdrawn from accounts in 2023.
The scenario of increasing fragmentation announced by the Central Bank implies that world states will try to localize production in their own regions, limiting their competitors’ access to the economy and technology. On the geopolitical agenda, partnerships will be built on geographical proximity and friendship. In this case, new sanctions against Russia, which will affect the growth rate of its economy, are not ignored. In this scenario, inflation could rise to 5-7% in 2024 and return to 4% in 2025. The Central Bank will have to follow a tougher policy than in the baseline scenario and a significant rate hike is possible.
The Central Bank on Friday outlined three scenarios for the development of the Russian economy until 2026. The first – basic – option assumes no new shocks. The third, risky scenario involves the global financial crisis, whose scale is comparable to the events of 2007-2008.
Formerly socialbites.ca saidhow the key rate affects the Russian economy.