Rosstat recorded declines in average retail prices for AI-92 gasoline and diesel. During the week from April 1 to April 8, prices fell – however, only by a symbolic 0.1%.
In absolute terms, the situation looks like this: the average prices of gasoline AI-92 fell by 4 kopecks. – up to 47.44 rubles. per liter.
The price of gasoline AI-95 fell by 5 kopecks. – up to 51.46 rubles. per liter. The price of diesel has dropped by 7 kopecks. – up to 54.62 rubles. per liter.
But the cost of AI-98 gasoline increased even by 1 kopeck. – up to 60.17 rubles. per liter. Rosstat recorded such a decrease in gasoline prices in 36 regions of Russia.
Moscow and St. Gasoline prices in St. Petersburg did not change in the same week. At gas stations in Moscow, gasoline of the AI-92 brand can be refueled from 46.09 to 48.31 rubles, AI-95 brand – from 50.99 to 56.09 rubles, AI-98 brand and higher – from 58.89 to 63.59 rubles. per liter.
Everything is stable in the Ministry of Energy
At the beginning of this year, it was assumed that the price of gasoline could rise to at least 60 rubles. per liter, he recalled Nikolai Vavilov, a specialist in the strategic research division of Total Research. “This would be a sensible upgrade. That is within 10% of expected inflation at the end of 2022. However, after February 24, the situation changed. “The price increase has actually stopped and the reverse process has even begun,” Vavilov said.
The Department of Energy still sees no reason to lower gasoline and diesel prices.
“Average retail prices for motor fuel in Russia remain at a stable level. Since the beginning of 2022, the growth in retail prices of motor fuel has been below the change in the consumer price index.
According to Rosstat, inflation rose from 0.99% in January to 1.17% in February to 7.61% in March. In January-March 2022, prices in the Russian Federation increased by 9.95%. The consensus forecast of experts polled by Interfax shows that inflation will be 22.7% in 2022. The estimate of Alexei Kudrin, head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, is between 17% and 20%.
The Ministry of Energy also noted that “the situation in the domestic motor fuel market is under control, the domestic market is fully provided.”
“In order to maintain a stable situation in the domestic market, the Ministry of Energy regularly holds operational meetings with companies producing large oil products, the fuel headquarters has been transferred to an advanced mode of operation. At the same time, refineries maintain a constant level of loading. For example, in March, daily average gasoline shipments to the domestic market increased by 1.3% compared to February and amounted to 101 thousand tons.
Consumption taxes won’t let prices fall
Experts explain that fuel prices have remained stable due to the refusal of some European countries to buy Russian oil and oil products, rather than the efforts of the authorities. Earlier in April, the European Parliament called on EU countries to impose an embargo on energy supplies from Russia, including an immediate full embargo on imports of oil, coal, nuclear fuel and gas from Russia.
“One of the factors for the stability of fuel prices is the refusal of a number of foreign countries to import Russian oil. The released volume is directed to the domestic market. This causes excess supply. As a result, we see even a slight decrease in the cost of gasoline, ”Alpha Capital Analyst Alexander Dzhioev told socialbites.ca.
Marcel Salikhov, director of the Center for Economic Expertise at the State Medical University Higher School of Economics, predicts that in the next two or three months, retail prices of gasoline and diesel fuel will remain stable – approximately at current levels.
Increasing competition among Russian oil companies will prevent further declines. “They really faced export restrictions and now they have to fight for the local consumer. This hinders wholesale prices,” says Salikhov.
Salikhov also stated that the current damper mechanism allows oil producers and refiners to feel comfortable even in the current harsh conditions.
“World oil prices have increased significantly in recent weeks. This means that compensation from the budget to oil companies must also increase through the damper mechanism, ”Salikhov explained.
The damper mechanism for petroleum products has been introduced since 2019. It is calculated from the difference between the export value of the fuel and the domestic base price. If exports become more profitable than supply to the domestic market, the state pays the oil companies. If the difference is negative, oil companies pay the budget.
Meanwhile, the government’s financial bloc believes the damper mechanism should be adjusted, or rather increased compensation to oil companies that supply fuel to both foreign and domestic markets. But the adjustment is expected no earlier than two months. This was announced by Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov on Wednesday, April 13. “So far, the matter has been postponed. Now we will look at the balance in the domestic petroleum products market. With an extra market, it doesn’t make much sense to overpay for the tipper, ”the Interfax agency said of the official.
Finally, keep in mind that most of the gasoline price (up to 75%) consists of administrative surcharges. “These are taxes and excise taxes that have not changed in any way, so we should not expect any further sharp declines in fuel prices,” said Alfa Capital analyst Dzhioev.
Source: Gazeta
Barbara Dickson is a seasoned writer for “Social Bites”. She keeps readers informed on the latest news and trends, providing in-depth coverage and analysis on a variety of topics.