“All problems became clear in 2025.” The head of the road spoke about the situation in the Russian Federation’s car market, the road, the government’s 10 actions will restore the automobile market of Russia 10 Actions 04/28/2025, 17:55

In the first days of April, all leading media organizations distributed loud news. In March, new automobile sales (compared to the same month last year) fell 46%, trucks -57%and bus -62%. Experts remember that they have left the Russian automobile market companies from “hostile” countries. Sales collapsed up to 688 thousand cars, which were less than 40% of the volumes in the previous year.

Two years ago, the reasons for the fall of the market are open for everyone – foreigners who occupied a share of about 60%went. Today, none of the producers went from Russia, on the contrary, new automatic brands, especially China or Russian, but did not emerge with the participation of China.

What provoked a market fall?

I think the main reasons are as follows: The high betting rate of the Central Bank is 21%, not only automobile, but also higher than the profitability of many other businesses of Russia; More than half, car loan programs for individuals and rental programs for legal entities; The explosions of Russian ruble’s volatility; Challenges, conditions and costs related to international calculations have increased;

The automotive industry usage program did not work and provoked an increase in cars for cars;

Although the income of citizens and legal entities remained behind a significant extent, the cost of cars grew throughout 2024.

Strategy

You may not agree with these results, but my opinion is just a part of the emphasized problems of the Russian automobile market. The main thing is the adoption of a new development strategy for the Russian automobile industry. Officially there is an old one document Developed Strategy of Development Strategy of the Russian Federation automobile industry until 2035 developed in the first half of 2022.

However, the really large -scale changes in the automobile market came after the beginning of February 2022, when producers from So -Fiander “Friendly countries” stopped supplying cars and spare parts for the local automobile market.

All problems became clear in 2025.

Most market participants hoped that the separation of foreign producers would not last long. After months, everything will return within a year, but this did not happen. As a result, a Chinese manufacturer flowed into the automobile market – about 70 brands. Many thought: the problem of filling has been solved, a wide range of models from China will create a suitable market conjuncture. And the automobile market of new cars has still collapsed in all segments. Secondary fell by 7.5% compared to the previous year.

What does this mean for the Russian economy?

If the situation does not change Until the end of the year, the market may drop by 30% as a whole in all segments.. What is this for Russia’s budget? The volume of the auto industry in financial terms is almost 20 trillion rubles, 5.7 trillion rubles of new cars, new truck – 1.4 trillion rubles, car cargo with 9.3 trillion rubles, 1.7 trillion ruble cargo – 1.7 trillion rubles, service and spare parts – 1.7 trillion rubles.

Due to these problems, the market may not be able to receive at least 6 trillion rubles. And taxes – at least 1.5 trillion rubles. This is without taking into account the effect of closing or reducing the volume of the activities of automobile businesses and reducing at least 100 thousand jobs. Tens of thousands of cars imported to the territory of Russia will be left without the possibility of repairing and acquiring spare parts due to the expected separation of a number of Chinese automobile companies.

The automobile industry is not only for automobile factories and businesses, but for the production of car components. This is also an commodity network – Russian automobile vendors. Less than 1% of cars are sold over the internet. We, manufacturers, dealers and ultimately Russian customers need a competent and qualified arrangement of the automobile market.

What does the Russian automobile market need?

The market volume of 2-3 million new cars needs to be increased. These numbers are explained in a very simple way. It should be remembered that a car fleet registered in Russia today is about 49 million units.

More than 70% of this park (35 million) more than 10 years and more than 40% – more than 15 years.

These are obviously old, insecure and non -ecological cars. Within 10 years, if we want cars to be more in the country under the age of 10, the annual volume of the automobile market should be at least 3 million units. We have achieved such a result in 2013 and it is not inaccessible.

The current Russian Avtovaz, Gas Group, UAZ, Sollers, Avtotor, Moskvich and Tula Vaval can produce 1-1.2 million cars.

The Russian automobile market, if nothing is done, may fall to this value in 2025 – it turns out that it will be filled. Then where and why does it come to spare parts investors and manufacturers? Therefore, if the automobile market does not start to earn more than 2 million automobile volumes, we do not see the arrival of neither Russian nor Chinese investors.

The car demand in Russia is far from being completely satisfied. Where does this result come from? Today, the degree of motorization of the population in Russia is estimated to be approximately 360 cars per 1,000, and in the developed countries of Europe, USA and Asia, this indicator is almost twice as high as. We are still far from these indicators, but our market develops in almost the same rules.

Strategy

In order to determine the production volume of machines with traditional internal combustion engines (ICE), electric motors and hybrid power plants, it is necessary to accept the development strategy of the Russian automobile industry.

Excessive passion for the electrification of vehicles will lead to the distraction of the state’s attention. Therefore, we will not see modern ice, transmissions and transmission in the coming years. And these components are extremely necessary for the civil car industry and defense industry. Is it possible to imagine that a military car is charging for 1 hour, can an enemy drone fly to him? Not against electric vehicles, but for reasonable and pragmatic development.

Legally, the “landing de in the country should only be provided with responsible manufacturers who will not leave the Russian market in the first challenges.

We need rules to allow businesses that insure their separation. This is necessary to compensate for the losses and risks of automobile owners and dealers. The latter must be accessed to the diagnostic servers of automobile manufacturers, and the servers themselves should be localized in Russia.

The automobile manufacturer working in Russia is required to guarantee the supply of spare parts for all cars sold for at least five years from the date of release. And this is far from a full requirement list to the responsible manufacturer.

It will be necessary to clearly determine the responsibility of the automobile vendor to the buyer and to summarize the responsibility of the automobile manufacturer. For example, the tasks of replacing a car with a new car. Indeed, after the departure of the manufacturers in 2022, it was understood that the automobile seller could not fulfill this need without the participation of the manufacturer and that he was a simple reason for not producing cars.

It is necessary to gradually ensure the transition of the transition to a complete assembly in the country. What does he mean by this? In the near future, farmers (including Utilsbor) – 5 years, as an option – you need to create ready -made automobile or machine tools for large -scale assembly (SKD) for automobile manufacturers.

It is necessary to create conditions for small size assembly (CKD). Such a plan will create many parliamentary businesses and thousands of new businesses in the country and supply spare parts. CKD installation support, for example, a partial return of Utilsbor, for example, should be provided. And, of course, from 100% of Russian automobile components, the utilsbor of automobile -mounted enterprises will need complete exemption.

From a part of the state, it is important to ensure the stability of the national currency, because the ratio of rubles for more than ten years has dropped almost 200%.

Since today’s rate destroys Russia’s industrial development, it is important to create financing at a level of 10-12% per year. The profitability of most Russian and foreign enterprises in industrial sectors does not exceed 20%, so the current rate of the Central Bank makes it impossible to invest in the real sectors of the economy: it is easier to put money in 20% deposit and not to take risks.

Such a bet is a powerful generator, delayed inflation. This is the opinion of many economists. Because most businesses invest the interest of this dragon, including cars, the cost of services or goods. We hope that we can participate in the creation of a new strategy to develop the Russian automobile industry.

The author expresses a personal view that may not coincide with the position of the editors.