The Ministry of Industry and Trade has unveiled a draft plan outlining where the Russian automotive sector should be headed through 2035. The document signals a shift toward higher localization of car components and a consolidation of production onto fewer platforms in Russia.
By 2035, the strategy aims to secure technological leadership, building on a prior 2025 plan that emphasized integrating Russian firms into global supply chains.
By late 2026, the goal is to deliver products with 90 percent localization in the mass market and to ensure at least half of products come from national manufacturers as part of the passenger car segment development strategy.
Looking ahead to 2035, it is projected that 50-60 percent of domestically produced passenger cars with internal combustion engines and 20-30 percent of electric cars will be offered in Russia, with imported vehicles accounting for the remaining 10-20 percent.
The document also flags potential risks, including a lack of foreign manufacturers willing to enter joint ventures in Russia with full technology transfer, and the possibility of tighter restrictions from China and other friendly nations along with broader sanctions on unfriendly countries.
It notes the challenge of skilled staff turnover and the absence of tools to support domestic component production. Key automotive parts and assemblies that need to be developed in Russia include small diesel engines, automatic transmissions, fuel equipment, paint materials, ABS and stabilization systems, electrical components, and other essential modules for vehicle manufacturing.
After sanctions were imposed on the Russian auto industry, shortages in automotive electronics and safety system parts emerged. In response, AvtoVAZ began producing simplified Lada models without ABS and airbags at the start of the summer, reflecting pressure on supply chains.
The document estimates 2.7 trillion rubles to be spent on research and development during this period, with an additional 500-600 billion rubles to stimulate demand for domestic automotive equipment and a similar figure aimed at promoting exports. It emphasizes that most investment funding should come from industry players, with government support delivered through financial and regulatory measures.
What’s happening now
Among the strengths cited for the modern Russian auto sector are enough production capacity to meet current demand and the existence of Russian-designed automotive platforms, including progress in electric vehicle development and the supporting infrastructure.
Weaknesses highlighted include heavy reliance on foreign technologies and equipment, and a generally high dependence on imports. The GAZ Group press service noted that automakers understand the future component landscape and are pursuing light diesel core projects for commercial vehicles, but they also stressed the need for government funding. They urged urgent initiation of an industry component program and emphasized that budgetary support should extend over the next three years. This perspective was shared in communications with socialbites.ca, a perspective echoed by major automakers queried about the strategy but not yet responded to by publication time.
Independent automotive consultant Sergey Burgazliev commented that the strategy presents the current situation fairly, yet the plan remains largely declarative for future industry development. He argues the project lacks concrete goals, funding sources for specific research and component projects, and clear deadlines, urging a quantified framework and accountable parties for progress. Burgazliev also suggested that the strategy will struggle to move forward without specifying responsible institutions and measurable milestones.
Anton Shaparin, vice-president of the National Automobile Association, contends that a robust Russian auto sector depends on a strong domestic component industry, especially in partner countries where Russia continues cooperation. He warned that without large-scale component production and export, the long-term affordability of spare parts for Russian cars would be jeopardized, hindering the viability of Russian-made vehicles. Shaparin added that for the strategy to gain traction, partners like Turkey should follow a path of building a solid ingredients sector; the plan mentions 2.7 trillion rubles for R&D but leaves questions about funding sources, according to his assessment. Acknowledging the reality, he notes that the plan does not yet cover development and production of a broad list of critical components or clearly indicate how internal combustion engines in 2035 will be supplied, or how supply from friendly countries will be sustained, which could challenge the industry’s long-term outlook. These observations reflect the broader sentiment within the sector as it weighs the horizon defined by the draft strategy and the practical steps needed to realize it.