Recently, a joint survey by Za Rulem and Avtostat looked into how old readers’ cars are. The results show that a sizable portion of vehicles have passed the ten-year mark, with 36% of respondents owning cars older than a decade. Some 18% wear 5-7 years, 17% have 8-10 years, and 29% drive relatively newer models. The picture paints a fleet skewed toward older vehicles, even as households in major cities hold younger cars on average.
What has unfolded in the car market over the last six months is not reassuring. There are fewer new cars available. Following the trend among rivals, Hyundai and Kia have effectively scaled back production as they consider substantial changes to their operations in Russia.
Meanwhile, the Chinese market remains cautious about flooding the Russian car segment with new models. Industry specialists shared their perspective on what lies ahead for the Russian vehicle fleet and its age structure.
Expert Commentary
Discussions from Avtostat indicate that a little over 60% of passenger cars in the Russian Federation are older than ten years. The survey results suggest a different snapshot, likely reflecting a strong response base from large cities where fleets tend to be younger. A broader takeaway, in the analyst view, centers on a critical nuance that influences policy and consumer behavior.
Current Avtostat figures place the average age of a passenger car in the country at 14 years. Over the last five years, this average has risen by roughly one year. This trend coincides with a market that has seen annual new-car sales hovering around 1.3 to 1.6 million units. Projections for 2022 anticipated a sharp drop to just over 600 thousand units, with a slow return to the 1 million level possibly taking three to four years.
The consequence is clear: the fleet will keep aging as the influx of fresh cars remains limited. Some regions might see modest improvements, especially in metropolitan areas or in regions like Tatarstan, but vast expanses such as the Far East are likely to retain older vehicles. Across the country, the average age of the fleet is expected to continue rising.
Acknowledgments: Image credit to Unsplash.