The forecast for Russia’s auto market suggests a steady rebound, with projections indicating sales could climb to around 1.3 million units in 2024, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade as part of its long-term manufacturing development plan through 2030 and 2035, reported by TASS.
Looking ahead to next year, the ministry projects roughly 1.1 million passenger cars, about 113 thousand light commercial vehicles, around 100 thousand trucks, and about 15 thousand buses sold domestically. These figures reflect a structured recovery phase as demand stabilizes after recent fluctuations, aligning with broader industrial policy goals published by the ministry.
Officials note that the market is expected to return to the average sales levels seen between 2015 and 2021 by 2026. From 2027 onward, a gradual annual growth pace of about 1 percent is anticipated. If these trends hold, the Russian auto market could reach roughly 1.8 million cars sold each year by 2030, with sales climbing to about 1.9 million annually by 2035, signaling a sustained period of expansion and market maturation.
In addition, the ministry’s outlook envisions a return to 2017 production levels within the next twelve years. It is estimated that car production could total around 700 thousand units in 2024 and rise to about 1.6 million by 2035, supported by investments and policy measures aimed at boosting manufacturing capacity and efficiency across the sector.
Industry sources estimate that by the end of 2023, approximately 950 thousand new cars will have been sold within Russia, a projection reflecting the ongoing realignment of supply and demand in the domestic automotive landscape, and highlighting the market’s resilience in the face of shifting economic conditions.
As the sector navigates these dynamics, questions remain about which vehicle segments might see the steepest price increases due to rising repair costs and other factors affecting the total cost of ownership for Russian consumers.